Week #4 of the NFL season brings us a week of favorites. Of my 14 picks this week, 13 are favorites to win. Normally, picking that many favorites isn't a good thing. I realize this and accept that I'll most likely take a few losses due to unforeseen circumstances, but other than a handful of games, the spreads are no lower than 4 points. That tells me that Vegas is pretty confident in their week four favorites, so we'll see what happens. Week #4 is also the first week of byes for NFL teams, with Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay sitting this week out. Shall we get to the picks?
Game #1-
(-6.5) Broncos @ Titans
After getting pimp slapped by Indy last week, the 1-2 Broncos head to Tennessee to take on Chris Johnson and the Titans. Tennessee is 2-1, but I'm not in love with this team. Sure, Chris Johnson is an animal (301 yards rushing & 4 touchdowns in 3 games), but they don't have much else on the offensive side of the football. Vince Young can make plays and all he does is win (blah, blah, blah), but I'm still not conVINCEd he's the answer in Tennessee. He's an exciting player, so hopefully he proves me wrong. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans have the 7th ranked defense in the league. Not bad for a team that lost its best interior lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch) to free agency. They're holding teams to 14 points a game and less than 300 yards of total offense, but they'll be tested this week when they take on the Broncos and their number 1 ranked passing offense. I look for this to be a better game than expected.
PICK- Titans to win AND Broncos to cover
Game #2-
(-1) Ravens @ Steelers
This is going to be one whopper of a game, as it always is when these two teams take the field. When you talk about Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the first topic is always defense and so far these two defenses have been shutting teams down and making it look easy. According to Yahoo rankings, Baltimore has the number 1 ranked defense in the league, being especially stingy against the pass (116 yards a game). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has the 6th ranked defense, putting a cork in opposing running games (60 yards a game). Offensively, Charlie Batch gets the start for the second week in a row for the Steelers, though I don't think he will be much of a factor in this game. I think if the Steelers are to win this game, they need a big week from Rashard Mendenhall, who is more than capable, averaging around 110 yards a game. Ultimately, I think offense is going to be a moot point this week and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game.
PICK- Steelers to win AND to cover
Game #3-
Bengals @ (-3) Cleveland
Statistically, these two teams are very similar, but one sits at 2-1 (The Bungles) and the other sits at 0-2 (The Clowns). Both have struggled in the passing game, but have run the ball fairly well. Defensively they are both pretty solid at stopping the passing game, but Cincy has a distinct advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All this means I think this game will be pretty close and most likely pretty ugly. Unless of course you enjoy watching games where each team runs the ball 40 times. If you play fantasy football and own Cedric Benson, I'd say this would be a great week to start him. The Bengals saw what Peyton Hillis did last week against the Ravens, so I have a feeling they're gonna shut him down and force Seneca Wallace to beat them, which probably isn't going to happen. NostraDonley sees the Brownies once again starting off 0-4.
PICK- Bengals to win AND to cover
Game #4-
(-14.5) Lions @ Packers
The Lions just can't get any respect. For the second week in a row they're staring down a double digit point spread against a fellow NFC North team. As I mentioned in my recap of week 3, I was very much surprised that Green Bay didn't blow Chicago's doors off last week. Despite that, my opinion of the team hasn't wavered and I still think they will end up winning the NFC North. The defense is too good (Currently ranked #2, according to Yahoo) and barring injury, Aaron Rogers should put up stellar numbers on offense, so they should score points. Losing Ryan Grant hurts, but I think Brandon Jackson can do some things to fill in. As far as this week, NostraDonley says that the Pack will be pretty salty about losing a Monday night game in the final seconds, so they'll score early and often to make sure that doesn't happen to them again. There is no way Detroit's 30th ranked defense is going to stop the Pack's potent offense and Detroit's Matthew Stafford-less offense won't be able to do much against the stingy Packer D. Normally I stay away from the big point spreads, but I really don't see Detroit doing ANYTHING this week.
PICK- Packers to win AND to cover
Game #5-
(-13.5) Panthers @ Saints
I'm surprised this game has such a big spread. Sure, the Panthers have the 2nd worst offense in the league, only managing 7 points last week against the Bungles. And sure, the Saints are coming off a division loss, looking to rebound against a team they should murder. But, this game scares me. Offensively, the Saints went from the number one offense in the league last year to 14th after 3 games this year. They lost Reggie Bush for at least six weeks and both Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas got dinged up last week against the Falcons. That doesn't bode well for improving your offensive numbers. Defensively, they've been terrible against the run (30th in the league, according to Yahoo) and history has shown that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can run against this team. I can't see the Saints losing two weeks in a row to division opponents, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers have a good day on the ground and keep this one closer than 13 points.
PICK- Saints to win AND Panthers to cover
Game #6-
(-7) 49ers @ Falcons
In my opinion, the 49ers have been the biggest disappointment of this young NFL season. They've got a young, exciting running back in Frank Gore, a young, exciting wide receiver in Michael Crabtree, a young, exciting tight end in Vernon Davis and a young, exciting linebacker in Patrick Willis. They play in a weak division (NFC West) against a team that only won one game last year (Rams), a team with a new coach (Seahawks) and a team that lost its starting quarterback and a couple big pieces on defense (Cardinals). The NFC West was there for the taking and San Francisco just came out and fell flat on their face. Their first move to get the ship back on track was firing offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. We'll see if it helps, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is coming off a huge last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. They've got the 6th ranked offense in the league, so they can score points and considering San Fran gives up a league worst 30 points a game, I don't think they'll have much trouble this week.
PICK- Falcons to win AND to cover
Game #7-
Seahawks @ (-1) Rams
Yet another surprising spread this week. The Rams are coming off a week 3 drubbing of Washington, but that doesn't change the fact that they are coming off a season where they only won 1 game and currently start a rookie quarterback. As I said in the recap, I'm not exactly sure HOW the Rams won that game, but I have a feeling it has more to do with the Redskins not being as good as I thought and not as much to do with the Rams being a vastly improved team. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type team thus far. Every time I think I have a read on them, they do the opposite. They gave up 518 yards of total offense to San Diego last week, but lost thanks to some stellar special teams play. Defensively the Seahawks haven't been that great thus far (Ranked 28th according to Yahoo), but they do have the 5th best run defense in the league, which should slow down Stephen Jackson. I like Seattle and a 1 point spread in this game, but as I mentioned before, every time I think I have them pegged, they do the opposite.
PICK- Seahawks to win AND to cover
Game #8-
Jets @ (-5.5) Bills
The Bills went into last week's game against the Patriots as a 14 point dog, put up 30 points and for the first time this season, beat the spread. That, of course was against the 27th ranked Patriots defense that gives up an average of 27 points a game. This week, they take on a Jets team that's coming off a big win over Miami. With Darrelle Revis hampered with an injury, the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS have been uncharacteristically ordinary against the pass. Stopping the run, on the other hand, has been a whole other story (#4 according to Yahoo) and considering running the ball is what butters the Bills' bread, it should be a long day for the three headed monster in Buffalo's back field. As far as the game goes, NostraDonley sees Mark Sanchez having another good week and the 32nd ranked Bills offense struggling against a stingy Jets defense.
PICK- Jets to win AND to cover
Game #9-
Colts @ (-7.5) Jaguars
Jacksonville sits at 1-2, but could be one of the worst teams in the league. They average 13 points a game and are close to the bottom of the league in both offense (30th) and defense (29th). David Garrard is averaging 150 yards a game, with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over three games. That's not gonna win games. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a bust so far, rushing for only 217 yards and he's yet to step foot in the endzone. On the other sideline, Indy fields a typical Colts team, lots of offense and not much defense. I can see Peyton Manning slinging the rock all over the 29th ranked Jags pass defense to win this one easily.
PICK- Colts to win AND to cover
Game #10-
Texans @ (-3) Raiders
Of all the games this week, I think this particular game has the most potential to be a trap game. Knee jerk reaction is going to lead people to believe the Texans are going to blow the Raiders up this week. I disagree and think that the 2nd ranked Raiders defense (#2 against the pass) are going to pester Matt Schaub and the 4th ranked Texans offense all day. What's interesting is the fact that Houston has the 31st ranked defense, but they've got the 2nd best run defense in the league. Oakland boasts the 4th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, so I think this game will boil down to Darren McFadden and if he can successfully run the football. Ultimately I think Houston will win the game, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Oakland is going to cover. But, watch out for this one. In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!!"
PICK- Texans to win AND Raiders to cover
Game #11-
(-8.5) Cardinals @ Chargers
This is another game that I plan to stay as far away from as I possibly can. It's not that I think the Chargers are going to lose, but as I mentioned in my previous post, but as I mentioned in my previous post, San Diego has been a thorn in my side. Oddly enough, despite sitting at 1-2, the Chargers have the number 1 offense in the NFL (according to Yahoo). They average over 460 yards a game, 345 of which are passing. According to Yahoo, the Chargers even have the 4th ranked defense in the league, so what gives? My conclusion is that the Chargers have been doomed by the poor play of their special teams and a terrible case of fumbleitis that's effected their entire stable of running backs. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals sit at 2-1, but rank close to the bottom in both offense (25th) and defense (26th overall and 31st against the run). Their quarterback is terrible and his poor play has contaminated the play of top tier wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Bottom line, I think the Chargers have a better team and should win this game with ease, but I wouldn't even bet two dollars on that happening.
PICK- Chargers to win AND to cover
Game #12-
(-6) Redskins @ Eagles
In losing to the hapless Rams last week, I think the Redskins showed their true colors. McNabb has been decent this season, but the defense has been atrocious (Ranked 32nd (last in the league) according to Yahoo). They are a little better against the run (11th) than they are the pass (31st), but they just flat out aren't good. Add to that the Albert Haynesworth drama and Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him this season. The Eagles, on the other hand, got rid of Donovan McNabb in the offseason and planned to go with Kevin Kolb at quarterback. One game and a concussion later, they've got Mike Vick starting and setting the world ablaze. The Eagles are 2-0 when Vick starts, with an offense that ranks in the top 10 (9th). In two starts, Vick has looked like a much improved quarterback, throwing significantly better than his career averages. I think McNabb will play well for the first time in a new jersey in front of the Philly crowd, but I think the Eagles offense will shred the skins' defense and win this one going away.
PICK- Eagles to win AND to cover
Game #13-
(-4) Bears @ Giants
Let me get this straight. You've got a 1-2 Giants team, coming off a 29-10 drubbing at the hands of the Tennessee Titans as a favorite going into a game against an undefeated Bears team coming off a victory over the high powered Green Bay Packers? Sure, the Bears haven't looked like world beaters in their three wins, but somehow they find a way to win. Jay Cutler has played better than I expected in Mike Martz's offense. I'm still not sold on the guy, but I'll give credit where credit is due. Defensively, the Bears have the best run defense in the league, which should prove to be handy against She-Li and the Giants. Last week, the Titans proved you can absorb a big day from Peyton's brother (386 yards passing) and still get a comfortable victory. The Giants are going to have to find a way to slow Cutler and the Bears' 5th ranked passing game down if they want a shot at winning this game. I don't see it happening.
PICK- Bears to win AND to cover
Game #14-
Patriots @ (-1) Dolphins
The Fins are prime time! Last week it was a Sunday night game (A loss to the Jets) and this week it's a Monday night game against the Patriots. This in an interesting game. Both teams are 2-1. Miami seems to be a little better than I anticipated. New England seems to be a little worse than I anticipated. Tom Brady and the Patriots bring a lot of offense (7th in the league, according to Yahoo) and lead the league in scoring (30 points a game), but they don't bring much defense (27th in the league). A poor Patriot defense is un-Belichickian. Miami, on the other hand, plays pretty good defense (11th), but only scores about 17 points a game. I can say that I'm not a big fan of Chad Henne. He didn't really impress me in college and so far hasn't done much to excite me in the NFL. Playing with Brandon Marshall obviously helps him, but I don't see them blowing up this week. The Dolphins and their wildcat formation always seem to give the Pats trouble, so if they get that working, this game could go either way (Thus the 1 point spread). I like the Patriots, but I don't think this is a game I'd put money on.
PICK- Patriots to win AND to cover
So there's my week #4 picks. A lot of these games could end up really close, so obviously take these picks with a grain of salt.
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars
Bears (-4) over Giants
Eagles (+6) over the Redskins
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