Nothing like finishing up the day going 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread. Just a terrible day all around. At this point, I'm ready to forget week 4 even happened and move on to week 5 as quickly as possible.
Game #9-
Colts- 31 @ (-7.5) Jaguars- 28
NostraDonley didn't see this one in the slightest. The Colts' defense must be worse than I thought because that's the only way to explain a 1-2 team that averages 13 points a game putting up 28 points for the win. Peyton Manning has to be pissed right now. He goes out there and throws for 352 yards and 2 scores only to have the defense let him down in a big way. The Jags won on a last second 59 yard field goal, so my opinion of them hasn't really changed, but after watching this game, I think a whole lot less of the Colts as a team.
RESULT- Jaguars win AND cover (4-5, 3-6)
Game #10-
Texans- 31 @ (-3) Raiders- 24
I think this game was closer than most thought it would be, but unfortunately for me, it wasn't close enough to cover the spread. Just as I figured they would, the Raider defense slowed down Matt Schaub and the Texans passing game, but the 31st ranked Raider run defense let Arian Foster rumble for 131 and a score. As I said in the original post, I thought the outcome of this game would boil down to Darren McFadden and his ability to run the football. The Texans successfully shut him down and got the win.
RESULT- Texans win AND cover (5-5, 3-7)
Game #11-
(-8.5) Cardinals- 10 @ Chargers- 41
I think the Cardinals and 49ers are battling to see who can finish last in the NFC West and claim the title as worst team in the NFC. The Chargers beat this team like a drum, once again putting up over 400 yards of total offense. It seems like San Diego's running backs are still afflicted with funbleitis, but they were able to overcome the drop 6 and put up 41 on a Cards defense ranked 26th in the NFL. I was pretty sure the Chargers would roll, but as I said earlier, I'm staying away from this team for the rest of the season.
RESULT- Chargers win AND cover (6-5, 4-7)
Game #12-
(-6) Redskins- 17 @ Eagles- 12
This is one of those "unforeseen circumstances" I was referring to in the original post. Had Michael Vick not gotten injured, would the outcome have changed? Who knows? I have a feeling the Eagles would have put up more than 12 points, but that's a moot point. They didn't and lost the game in McNabb's return to Philly. Speaking of the Eagles' former QB, he didn't put very good numbers (125 yards, 1td), but did enough to seal the win. For the Eagles' sake, I hope Michael Vick returns soon, or they'll have a lot of 12 point games to look forward to.
RESULT- Redskins win AND cover (6-6, 4-8)
Game #13-
(-4) Bears- 3 @ Giants- 17
Two easy ways to slow down a passing attack...1. Concuss the starting quarterback and 2. Blow up the offensive line and sack the quarterback 10 times. The Bears looked a lot less like a 3-0 team (fraud) and more like the team I expected them to be in this game. On top of great defense, the Giants also rumbled for 189 yards against a Bears team that before this game was only allowing 60 yards on the ground a game. I guess that explains why the Giants were the favorites this week.
RESULT- Giants win AND cover (6-7, 4-9)
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills- WIN
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars- LOSS
Bears (-4) over Giants- LOSS
Eagles (+6) over Redskins- LOSS
Monday, October 4, 2010
Sunday, October 3, 2010
10/03 Early Games...
Well, instead of being the week of favorites, this week is turning out to be the week of underdogs. In the first 8 games of the day, 5 underdogs won straight up and 7 dogs beat the spread. Unfortunately, this trend didn't do much to help my picks. As I mentioned in the original post for the week, I knew that going with so many favorites was a bad idea, but I rolled the dice and the house won. On the bright side, I won the first parlay pick of the day. But, as I'm typing this post, it's not looking so good for the final three. I guess we'll see what happens.
Game #1-
(-6.5) Broncos- 26 @ Titans- 20
I said two things in my original post that turned out to be true. First, I said that I wasn't in love with the Titans because other than Chris Johnson, they don't have much on the offensive side of the football. Considering their offense couldn't put the ball in the endzone in the second half, that proved to be true. Second, I said that this game would be a better game than most expected, which was also true. Kyle Orton put up another great passing day (341 yards, 2 tds) and leads the Broncos to the upset.
RESULT- Broncos win AND cover (0-1, 1-0)
Game #2-
(-1) Ravens- 17 @ Steelers- 14
NostraDonley strikes again. In the original post, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game. I was just one point off, but I picked the wrong winner. Just as I anticipated, it was a game filled with big hits and physical play. The Steelers got their big game from Rashard Mendenhall (79 yards, 2 tds), but in the end it was Joe Flacco making the big play for Baltimore, throwing a score to T.J. Whoseyourmamma with :34 left in the game.
RESULT- Ravens win AND cover (0-2, 1-1)
Game #3-
Bengals- 20 @ (-3) Cleveland- 23
NostraDonley said this game would be close and once again he was right. Unfortunately, he also said that Cedric Benson would have a big day (60 yards, 0tds) and that the Bengals defense would shut down Peyton Hillis (102 yards, 1td). Obviously, neither of those happened. Despite the fact that Carson Palmer had his first solid game of the year (371 yards, 2tds) and Terrell Owens went insane (222 yards, 1td), the Bengals STILL lost to an 0-4 team. They made a run at the end, reeling off 10 unanswered points and holding Cleveland scoreless in the 4th, but ultimately the Bungles couldn't make enough plays to pull off the victory.
RESULT- Browns win AND cover (0-3, 1-2)
Game #4-
(-14.5) Lions- 26 @ Packers- 28
Wow, was I ever wrong about this game! The Lions came to play, out gaining the Pack 431 yards to 261. Aaron Rogers threw for 3 scores, but only had 181 yards and tossed 2 interceptions. Shaun Hill had a pretty good game (331 yards, 2tds) against a tough Packer defense, but in the end, his 2 interceptions (1 returned for a score) doomed the Lions. If the Packers want me to continue believing they are the best team in the NFC, they need to play better football than what I've seen over the last two games.
RESULT- Packers win AND Lions cover (1-3, 1-3)
Game #5-
(-13.5) Panthers-14 @ Saints-16
If you're curious about what happened in this game, go ahead and read what NostraDonley wrote in the original post about this game. The game basically played out word for damn word! The Saints should have killed this team, yet they squeak out a 2 point victory in the closing minutes.DeAngelo Williams ran for 86 yards and a touchdown and for the fourth week in a row, the Saints couldn't get their offense in gear.
RESULT- Saints win AND Panthers cover (2-3, 2-3)
Game #6-
(-7) 49ers- 14 @ Falcons- 16
San Fransisco held Atlanta's 6th ranked offense to only 16 points (surprising), but it was the Atlanta defense, that stepped up this week. After giving up 14 points in the first quarter, they stiffened and didn't let the niners put another point on the board the rest of the game. San Fran has been relatively competitive in their 4 games, but unfortunately for them, at 0-4, I think their hopes for an NFC West title and playoff birth are gone with the winds at Candlestick.
RESULT- Falcons win AND 49ers cover (3-3, 2-4)
Game #7-
Seahawks- 3 @ (-1) Rams- 20
Once again, Mr. Hyde reared his ugly head in Seattle. Coming off a week where they score 27 points to beat a vastly better team in San Diego, they put up 3 points against a team coming off a 1 win season. From here on, when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks, I'm going to pick the opposite of what I think is going to happen. That formula would have worked over these first 4 games, so I don't see why it won't work for the rest of the season. Three measly points. How pathetic!
RESULT- Rams win AND cover (3-4, 2-5)
Game #8-
Jets- 38 @ (-5.5) Bills-14
NostraDonley was pretty accurate on this game. Sanchez had another decent game, throwing 2 touchdowns and not turning the ball over. The defense held the Bills in check for most of the day, giving up a garbage time 4th quarter touchdown. Considering the Bills aren't a very good football team, this outcome didn't surprise me in the slightest.
RESULT- Jets win AND cover (4-4, 3-5)
So, I went .500 in straight picks over the first 8, but tanked against the spread. Hopefully I can improve those numbers after the late games finish. On the bright side, I won my first parlay pick.
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills- WIN
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars
Bears (-4) over Giants
Eagles (+6) over the Redskins
Game #1-
(-6.5) Broncos- 26 @ Titans- 20
I said two things in my original post that turned out to be true. First, I said that I wasn't in love with the Titans because other than Chris Johnson, they don't have much on the offensive side of the football. Considering their offense couldn't put the ball in the endzone in the second half, that proved to be true. Second, I said that this game would be a better game than most expected, which was also true. Kyle Orton put up another great passing day (341 yards, 2 tds) and leads the Broncos to the upset.
RESULT- Broncos win AND cover (0-1, 1-0)
Game #2-
(-1) Ravens- 17 @ Steelers- 14
NostraDonley strikes again. In the original post, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game. I was just one point off, but I picked the wrong winner. Just as I anticipated, it was a game filled with big hits and physical play. The Steelers got their big game from Rashard Mendenhall (79 yards, 2 tds), but in the end it was Joe Flacco making the big play for Baltimore, throwing a score to T.J. Whoseyourmamma with :34 left in the game.
RESULT- Ravens win AND cover (0-2, 1-1)
Game #3-
Bengals- 20 @ (-3) Cleveland- 23
NostraDonley said this game would be close and once again he was right. Unfortunately, he also said that Cedric Benson would have a big day (60 yards, 0tds) and that the Bengals defense would shut down Peyton Hillis (102 yards, 1td). Obviously, neither of those happened. Despite the fact that Carson Palmer had his first solid game of the year (371 yards, 2tds) and Terrell Owens went insane (222 yards, 1td), the Bengals STILL lost to an 0-4 team. They made a run at the end, reeling off 10 unanswered points and holding Cleveland scoreless in the 4th, but ultimately the Bungles couldn't make enough plays to pull off the victory.
RESULT- Browns win AND cover (0-3, 1-2)
Game #4-
(-14.5) Lions- 26 @ Packers- 28
Wow, was I ever wrong about this game! The Lions came to play, out gaining the Pack 431 yards to 261. Aaron Rogers threw for 3 scores, but only had 181 yards and tossed 2 interceptions. Shaun Hill had a pretty good game (331 yards, 2tds) against a tough Packer defense, but in the end, his 2 interceptions (1 returned for a score) doomed the Lions. If the Packers want me to continue believing they are the best team in the NFC, they need to play better football than what I've seen over the last two games.
RESULT- Packers win AND Lions cover (1-3, 1-3)
Game #5-
(-13.5) Panthers-14 @ Saints-16
If you're curious about what happened in this game, go ahead and read what NostraDonley wrote in the original post about this game. The game basically played out word for damn word! The Saints should have killed this team, yet they squeak out a 2 point victory in the closing minutes.DeAngelo Williams ran for 86 yards and a touchdown and for the fourth week in a row, the Saints couldn't get their offense in gear.
RESULT- Saints win AND Panthers cover (2-3, 2-3)
Game #6-
(-7) 49ers- 14 @ Falcons- 16
San Fransisco held Atlanta's 6th ranked offense to only 16 points (surprising), but it was the Atlanta defense, that stepped up this week. After giving up 14 points in the first quarter, they stiffened and didn't let the niners put another point on the board the rest of the game. San Fran has been relatively competitive in their 4 games, but unfortunately for them, at 0-4, I think their hopes for an NFC West title and playoff birth are gone with the winds at Candlestick.
RESULT- Falcons win AND 49ers cover (3-3, 2-4)
Game #7-
Seahawks- 3 @ (-1) Rams- 20
Once again, Mr. Hyde reared his ugly head in Seattle. Coming off a week where they score 27 points to beat a vastly better team in San Diego, they put up 3 points against a team coming off a 1 win season. From here on, when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks, I'm going to pick the opposite of what I think is going to happen. That formula would have worked over these first 4 games, so I don't see why it won't work for the rest of the season. Three measly points. How pathetic!
RESULT- Rams win AND cover (3-4, 2-5)
Game #8-
Jets- 38 @ (-5.5) Bills-14
NostraDonley was pretty accurate on this game. Sanchez had another decent game, throwing 2 touchdowns and not turning the ball over. The defense held the Bills in check for most of the day, giving up a garbage time 4th quarter touchdown. Considering the Bills aren't a very good football team, this outcome didn't surprise me in the slightest.
RESULT- Jets win AND cover (4-4, 3-5)
So, I went .500 in straight picks over the first 8, but tanked against the spread. Hopefully I can improve those numbers after the late games finish. On the bright side, I won my first parlay pick.
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills- WIN
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars
Bears (-4) over Giants
Eagles (+6) over the Redskins
Friday, October 1, 2010
NFL Picks- Week #4...
Week #4 of the NFL season brings us a week of favorites. Of my 14 picks this week, 13 are favorites to win. Normally, picking that many favorites isn't a good thing. I realize this and accept that I'll most likely take a few losses due to unforeseen circumstances, but other than a handful of games, the spreads are no lower than 4 points. That tells me that Vegas is pretty confident in their week four favorites, so we'll see what happens. Week #4 is also the first week of byes for NFL teams, with Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay sitting this week out. Shall we get to the picks?
Game #1-
(-6.5) Broncos @ Titans
After getting pimp slapped by Indy last week, the 1-2 Broncos head to Tennessee to take on Chris Johnson and the Titans. Tennessee is 2-1, but I'm not in love with this team. Sure, Chris Johnson is an animal (301 yards rushing & 4 touchdowns in 3 games), but they don't have much else on the offensive side of the football. Vince Young can make plays and all he does is win (blah, blah, blah), but I'm still not conVINCEd he's the answer in Tennessee. He's an exciting player, so hopefully he proves me wrong. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans have the 7th ranked defense in the league. Not bad for a team that lost its best interior lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch) to free agency. They're holding teams to 14 points a game and less than 300 yards of total offense, but they'll be tested this week when they take on the Broncos and their number 1 ranked passing offense. I look for this to be a better game than expected.
PICK- Titans to win AND Broncos to cover
Game #2-
(-1) Ravens @ Steelers
This is going to be one whopper of a game, as it always is when these two teams take the field. When you talk about Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the first topic is always defense and so far these two defenses have been shutting teams down and making it look easy. According to Yahoo rankings, Baltimore has the number 1 ranked defense in the league, being especially stingy against the pass (116 yards a game). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has the 6th ranked defense, putting a cork in opposing running games (60 yards a game). Offensively, Charlie Batch gets the start for the second week in a row for the Steelers, though I don't think he will be much of a factor in this game. I think if the Steelers are to win this game, they need a big week from Rashard Mendenhall, who is more than capable, averaging around 110 yards a game. Ultimately, I think offense is going to be a moot point this week and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game.
PICK- Steelers to win AND to cover
Game #3-
Bengals @ (-3) Cleveland
Statistically, these two teams are very similar, but one sits at 2-1 (The Bungles) and the other sits at 0-2 (The Clowns). Both have struggled in the passing game, but have run the ball fairly well. Defensively they are both pretty solid at stopping the passing game, but Cincy has a distinct advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All this means I think this game will be pretty close and most likely pretty ugly. Unless of course you enjoy watching games where each team runs the ball 40 times. If you play fantasy football and own Cedric Benson, I'd say this would be a great week to start him. The Bengals saw what Peyton Hillis did last week against the Ravens, so I have a feeling they're gonna shut him down and force Seneca Wallace to beat them, which probably isn't going to happen. NostraDonley sees the Brownies once again starting off 0-4.
PICK- Bengals to win AND to cover
Game #4-
(-14.5) Lions @ Packers
The Lions just can't get any respect. For the second week in a row they're staring down a double digit point spread against a fellow NFC North team. As I mentioned in my recap of week 3, I was very much surprised that Green Bay didn't blow Chicago's doors off last week. Despite that, my opinion of the team hasn't wavered and I still think they will end up winning the NFC North. The defense is too good (Currently ranked #2, according to Yahoo) and barring injury, Aaron Rogers should put up stellar numbers on offense, so they should score points. Losing Ryan Grant hurts, but I think Brandon Jackson can do some things to fill in. As far as this week, NostraDonley says that the Pack will be pretty salty about losing a Monday night game in the final seconds, so they'll score early and often to make sure that doesn't happen to them again. There is no way Detroit's 30th ranked defense is going to stop the Pack's potent offense and Detroit's Matthew Stafford-less offense won't be able to do much against the stingy Packer D. Normally I stay away from the big point spreads, but I really don't see Detroit doing ANYTHING this week.
PICK- Packers to win AND to cover
Game #5-
(-13.5) Panthers @ Saints
I'm surprised this game has such a big spread. Sure, the Panthers have the 2nd worst offense in the league, only managing 7 points last week against the Bungles. And sure, the Saints are coming off a division loss, looking to rebound against a team they should murder. But, this game scares me. Offensively, the Saints went from the number one offense in the league last year to 14th after 3 games this year. They lost Reggie Bush for at least six weeks and both Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas got dinged up last week against the Falcons. That doesn't bode well for improving your offensive numbers. Defensively, they've been terrible against the run (30th in the league, according to Yahoo) and history has shown that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can run against this team. I can't see the Saints losing two weeks in a row to division opponents, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers have a good day on the ground and keep this one closer than 13 points.
PICK- Saints to win AND Panthers to cover
Game #6-
(-7) 49ers @ Falcons
In my opinion, the 49ers have been the biggest disappointment of this young NFL season. They've got a young, exciting running back in Frank Gore, a young, exciting wide receiver in Michael Crabtree, a young, exciting tight end in Vernon Davis and a young, exciting linebacker in Patrick Willis. They play in a weak division (NFC West) against a team that only won one game last year (Rams), a team with a new coach (Seahawks) and a team that lost its starting quarterback and a couple big pieces on defense (Cardinals). The NFC West was there for the taking and San Francisco just came out and fell flat on their face. Their first move to get the ship back on track was firing offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. We'll see if it helps, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is coming off a huge last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. They've got the 6th ranked offense in the league, so they can score points and considering San Fran gives up a league worst 30 points a game, I don't think they'll have much trouble this week.
PICK- Falcons to win AND to cover
Game #7-
Seahawks @ (-1) Rams
Yet another surprising spread this week. The Rams are coming off a week 3 drubbing of Washington, but that doesn't change the fact that they are coming off a season where they only won 1 game and currently start a rookie quarterback. As I said in the recap, I'm not exactly sure HOW the Rams won that game, but I have a feeling it has more to do with the Redskins not being as good as I thought and not as much to do with the Rams being a vastly improved team. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type team thus far. Every time I think I have a read on them, they do the opposite. They gave up 518 yards of total offense to San Diego last week, but lost thanks to some stellar special teams play. Defensively the Seahawks haven't been that great thus far (Ranked 28th according to Yahoo), but they do have the 5th best run defense in the league, which should slow down Stephen Jackson. I like Seattle and a 1 point spread in this game, but as I mentioned before, every time I think I have them pegged, they do the opposite.
PICK- Seahawks to win AND to cover
Game #8-
Jets @ (-5.5) Bills
The Bills went into last week's game against the Patriots as a 14 point dog, put up 30 points and for the first time this season, beat the spread. That, of course was against the 27th ranked Patriots defense that gives up an average of 27 points a game. This week, they take on a Jets team that's coming off a big win over Miami. With Darrelle Revis hampered with an injury, the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS have been uncharacteristically ordinary against the pass. Stopping the run, on the other hand, has been a whole other story (#4 according to Yahoo) and considering running the ball is what butters the Bills' bread, it should be a long day for the three headed monster in Buffalo's back field. As far as the game goes, NostraDonley sees Mark Sanchez having another good week and the 32nd ranked Bills offense struggling against a stingy Jets defense.
PICK- Jets to win AND to cover
Game #9-
Colts @ (-7.5) Jaguars
Jacksonville sits at 1-2, but could be one of the worst teams in the league. They average 13 points a game and are close to the bottom of the league in both offense (30th) and defense (29th). David Garrard is averaging 150 yards a game, with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over three games. That's not gonna win games. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a bust so far, rushing for only 217 yards and he's yet to step foot in the endzone. On the other sideline, Indy fields a typical Colts team, lots of offense and not much defense. I can see Peyton Manning slinging the rock all over the 29th ranked Jags pass defense to win this one easily.
PICK- Colts to win AND to cover
Game #10-
Texans @ (-3) Raiders
Of all the games this week, I think this particular game has the most potential to be a trap game. Knee jerk reaction is going to lead people to believe the Texans are going to blow the Raiders up this week. I disagree and think that the 2nd ranked Raiders defense (#2 against the pass) are going to pester Matt Schaub and the 4th ranked Texans offense all day. What's interesting is the fact that Houston has the 31st ranked defense, but they've got the 2nd best run defense in the league. Oakland boasts the 4th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, so I think this game will boil down to Darren McFadden and if he can successfully run the football. Ultimately I think Houston will win the game, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Oakland is going to cover. But, watch out for this one. In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!!"
PICK- Texans to win AND Raiders to cover
Game #11-
(-8.5) Cardinals @ Chargers
This is another game that I plan to stay as far away from as I possibly can. It's not that I think the Chargers are going to lose, but as I mentioned in my previous post, but as I mentioned in my previous post, San Diego has been a thorn in my side. Oddly enough, despite sitting at 1-2, the Chargers have the number 1 offense in the NFL (according to Yahoo). They average over 460 yards a game, 345 of which are passing. According to Yahoo, the Chargers even have the 4th ranked defense in the league, so what gives? My conclusion is that the Chargers have been doomed by the poor play of their special teams and a terrible case of fumbleitis that's effected their entire stable of running backs. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals sit at 2-1, but rank close to the bottom in both offense (25th) and defense (26th overall and 31st against the run). Their quarterback is terrible and his poor play has contaminated the play of top tier wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Bottom line, I think the Chargers have a better team and should win this game with ease, but I wouldn't even bet two dollars on that happening.
PICK- Chargers to win AND to cover
Game #12-
(-6) Redskins @ Eagles
In losing to the hapless Rams last week, I think the Redskins showed their true colors. McNabb has been decent this season, but the defense has been atrocious (Ranked 32nd (last in the league) according to Yahoo). They are a little better against the run (11th) than they are the pass (31st), but they just flat out aren't good. Add to that the Albert Haynesworth drama and Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him this season. The Eagles, on the other hand, got rid of Donovan McNabb in the offseason and planned to go with Kevin Kolb at quarterback. One game and a concussion later, they've got Mike Vick starting and setting the world ablaze. The Eagles are 2-0 when Vick starts, with an offense that ranks in the top 10 (9th). In two starts, Vick has looked like a much improved quarterback, throwing significantly better than his career averages. I think McNabb will play well for the first time in a new jersey in front of the Philly crowd, but I think the Eagles offense will shred the skins' defense and win this one going away.
PICK- Eagles to win AND to cover
Game #13-
(-4) Bears @ Giants
Let me get this straight. You've got a 1-2 Giants team, coming off a 29-10 drubbing at the hands of the Tennessee Titans as a favorite going into a game against an undefeated Bears team coming off a victory over the high powered Green Bay Packers? Sure, the Bears haven't looked like world beaters in their three wins, but somehow they find a way to win. Jay Cutler has played better than I expected in Mike Martz's offense. I'm still not sold on the guy, but I'll give credit where credit is due. Defensively, the Bears have the best run defense in the league, which should prove to be handy against She-Li and the Giants. Last week, the Titans proved you can absorb a big day from Peyton's brother (386 yards passing) and still get a comfortable victory. The Giants are going to have to find a way to slow Cutler and the Bears' 5th ranked passing game down if they want a shot at winning this game. I don't see it happening.
PICK- Bears to win AND to cover
Game #14-
Patriots @ (-1) Dolphins
The Fins are prime time! Last week it was a Sunday night game (A loss to the Jets) and this week it's a Monday night game against the Patriots. This in an interesting game. Both teams are 2-1. Miami seems to be a little better than I anticipated. New England seems to be a little worse than I anticipated. Tom Brady and the Patriots bring a lot of offense (7th in the league, according to Yahoo) and lead the league in scoring (30 points a game), but they don't bring much defense (27th in the league). A poor Patriot defense is un-Belichickian. Miami, on the other hand, plays pretty good defense (11th), but only scores about 17 points a game. I can say that I'm not a big fan of Chad Henne. He didn't really impress me in college and so far hasn't done much to excite me in the NFL. Playing with Brandon Marshall obviously helps him, but I don't see them blowing up this week. The Dolphins and their wildcat formation always seem to give the Pats trouble, so if they get that working, this game could go either way (Thus the 1 point spread). I like the Patriots, but I don't think this is a game I'd put money on.
PICK- Patriots to win AND to cover
So there's my week #4 picks. A lot of these games could end up really close, so obviously take these picks with a grain of salt.
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars
Bears (-4) over Giants
Eagles (+6) over the Redskins
Game #1-
(-6.5) Broncos @ Titans
After getting pimp slapped by Indy last week, the 1-2 Broncos head to Tennessee to take on Chris Johnson and the Titans. Tennessee is 2-1, but I'm not in love with this team. Sure, Chris Johnson is an animal (301 yards rushing & 4 touchdowns in 3 games), but they don't have much else on the offensive side of the football. Vince Young can make plays and all he does is win (blah, blah, blah), but I'm still not conVINCEd he's the answer in Tennessee. He's an exciting player, so hopefully he proves me wrong. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans have the 7th ranked defense in the league. Not bad for a team that lost its best interior lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch) to free agency. They're holding teams to 14 points a game and less than 300 yards of total offense, but they'll be tested this week when they take on the Broncos and their number 1 ranked passing offense. I look for this to be a better game than expected.
PICK- Titans to win AND Broncos to cover
Game #2-
(-1) Ravens @ Steelers
This is going to be one whopper of a game, as it always is when these two teams take the field. When you talk about Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the first topic is always defense and so far these two defenses have been shutting teams down and making it look easy. According to Yahoo rankings, Baltimore has the number 1 ranked defense in the league, being especially stingy against the pass (116 yards a game). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has the 6th ranked defense, putting a cork in opposing running games (60 yards a game). Offensively, Charlie Batch gets the start for the second week in a row for the Steelers, though I don't think he will be much of a factor in this game. I think if the Steelers are to win this game, they need a big week from Rashard Mendenhall, who is more than capable, averaging around 110 yards a game. Ultimately, I think offense is going to be a moot point this week and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 17-13 game.
PICK- Steelers to win AND to cover
Game #3-
Bengals @ (-3) Cleveland
Statistically, these two teams are very similar, but one sits at 2-1 (The Bungles) and the other sits at 0-2 (The Clowns). Both have struggled in the passing game, but have run the ball fairly well. Defensively they are both pretty solid at stopping the passing game, but Cincy has a distinct advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All this means I think this game will be pretty close and most likely pretty ugly. Unless of course you enjoy watching games where each team runs the ball 40 times. If you play fantasy football and own Cedric Benson, I'd say this would be a great week to start him. The Bengals saw what Peyton Hillis did last week against the Ravens, so I have a feeling they're gonna shut him down and force Seneca Wallace to beat them, which probably isn't going to happen. NostraDonley sees the Brownies once again starting off 0-4.
PICK- Bengals to win AND to cover
Game #4-
(-14.5) Lions @ Packers
The Lions just can't get any respect. For the second week in a row they're staring down a double digit point spread against a fellow NFC North team. As I mentioned in my recap of week 3, I was very much surprised that Green Bay didn't blow Chicago's doors off last week. Despite that, my opinion of the team hasn't wavered and I still think they will end up winning the NFC North. The defense is too good (Currently ranked #2, according to Yahoo) and barring injury, Aaron Rogers should put up stellar numbers on offense, so they should score points. Losing Ryan Grant hurts, but I think Brandon Jackson can do some things to fill in. As far as this week, NostraDonley says that the Pack will be pretty salty about losing a Monday night game in the final seconds, so they'll score early and often to make sure that doesn't happen to them again. There is no way Detroit's 30th ranked defense is going to stop the Pack's potent offense and Detroit's Matthew Stafford-less offense won't be able to do much against the stingy Packer D. Normally I stay away from the big point spreads, but I really don't see Detroit doing ANYTHING this week.
PICK- Packers to win AND to cover
Game #5-
(-13.5) Panthers @ Saints
I'm surprised this game has such a big spread. Sure, the Panthers have the 2nd worst offense in the league, only managing 7 points last week against the Bungles. And sure, the Saints are coming off a division loss, looking to rebound against a team they should murder. But, this game scares me. Offensively, the Saints went from the number one offense in the league last year to 14th after 3 games this year. They lost Reggie Bush for at least six weeks and both Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas got dinged up last week against the Falcons. That doesn't bode well for improving your offensive numbers. Defensively, they've been terrible against the run (30th in the league, according to Yahoo) and history has shown that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can run against this team. I can't see the Saints losing two weeks in a row to division opponents, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers have a good day on the ground and keep this one closer than 13 points.
PICK- Saints to win AND Panthers to cover
Game #6-
(-7) 49ers @ Falcons
In my opinion, the 49ers have been the biggest disappointment of this young NFL season. They've got a young, exciting running back in Frank Gore, a young, exciting wide receiver in Michael Crabtree, a young, exciting tight end in Vernon Davis and a young, exciting linebacker in Patrick Willis. They play in a weak division (NFC West) against a team that only won one game last year (Rams), a team with a new coach (Seahawks) and a team that lost its starting quarterback and a couple big pieces on defense (Cardinals). The NFC West was there for the taking and San Francisco just came out and fell flat on their face. Their first move to get the ship back on track was firing offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. We'll see if it helps, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is coming off a huge last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. They've got the 6th ranked offense in the league, so they can score points and considering San Fran gives up a league worst 30 points a game, I don't think they'll have much trouble this week.
PICK- Falcons to win AND to cover
Game #7-
Seahawks @ (-1) Rams
Yet another surprising spread this week. The Rams are coming off a week 3 drubbing of Washington, but that doesn't change the fact that they are coming off a season where they only won 1 game and currently start a rookie quarterback. As I said in the recap, I'm not exactly sure HOW the Rams won that game, but I have a feeling it has more to do with the Redskins not being as good as I thought and not as much to do with the Rams being a vastly improved team. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type team thus far. Every time I think I have a read on them, they do the opposite. They gave up 518 yards of total offense to San Diego last week, but lost thanks to some stellar special teams play. Defensively the Seahawks haven't been that great thus far (Ranked 28th according to Yahoo), but they do have the 5th best run defense in the league, which should slow down Stephen Jackson. I like Seattle and a 1 point spread in this game, but as I mentioned before, every time I think I have them pegged, they do the opposite.
PICK- Seahawks to win AND to cover
Game #8-
Jets @ (-5.5) Bills
The Bills went into last week's game against the Patriots as a 14 point dog, put up 30 points and for the first time this season, beat the spread. That, of course was against the 27th ranked Patriots defense that gives up an average of 27 points a game. This week, they take on a Jets team that's coming off a big win over Miami. With Darrelle Revis hampered with an injury, the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS have been uncharacteristically ordinary against the pass. Stopping the run, on the other hand, has been a whole other story (#4 according to Yahoo) and considering running the ball is what butters the Bills' bread, it should be a long day for the three headed monster in Buffalo's back field. As far as the game goes, NostraDonley sees Mark Sanchez having another good week and the 32nd ranked Bills offense struggling against a stingy Jets defense.
PICK- Jets to win AND to cover
Game #9-
Colts @ (-7.5) Jaguars
Jacksonville sits at 1-2, but could be one of the worst teams in the league. They average 13 points a game and are close to the bottom of the league in both offense (30th) and defense (29th). David Garrard is averaging 150 yards a game, with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over three games. That's not gonna win games. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a bust so far, rushing for only 217 yards and he's yet to step foot in the endzone. On the other sideline, Indy fields a typical Colts team, lots of offense and not much defense. I can see Peyton Manning slinging the rock all over the 29th ranked Jags pass defense to win this one easily.
PICK- Colts to win AND to cover
Game #10-
Texans @ (-3) Raiders
Of all the games this week, I think this particular game has the most potential to be a trap game. Knee jerk reaction is going to lead people to believe the Texans are going to blow the Raiders up this week. I disagree and think that the 2nd ranked Raiders defense (#2 against the pass) are going to pester Matt Schaub and the 4th ranked Texans offense all day. What's interesting is the fact that Houston has the 31st ranked defense, but they've got the 2nd best run defense in the league. Oakland boasts the 4th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, so I think this game will boil down to Darren McFadden and if he can successfully run the football. Ultimately I think Houston will win the game, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Oakland is going to cover. But, watch out for this one. In the words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!!"
PICK- Texans to win AND Raiders to cover
Game #11-
(-8.5) Cardinals @ Chargers
This is another game that I plan to stay as far away from as I possibly can. It's not that I think the Chargers are going to lose, but as I mentioned in my previous post, but as I mentioned in my previous post, San Diego has been a thorn in my side. Oddly enough, despite sitting at 1-2, the Chargers have the number 1 offense in the NFL (according to Yahoo). They average over 460 yards a game, 345 of which are passing. According to Yahoo, the Chargers even have the 4th ranked defense in the league, so what gives? My conclusion is that the Chargers have been doomed by the poor play of their special teams and a terrible case of fumbleitis that's effected their entire stable of running backs. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals sit at 2-1, but rank close to the bottom in both offense (25th) and defense (26th overall and 31st against the run). Their quarterback is terrible and his poor play has contaminated the play of top tier wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Bottom line, I think the Chargers have a better team and should win this game with ease, but I wouldn't even bet two dollars on that happening.
PICK- Chargers to win AND to cover
Game #12-
(-6) Redskins @ Eagles
In losing to the hapless Rams last week, I think the Redskins showed their true colors. McNabb has been decent this season, but the defense has been atrocious (Ranked 32nd (last in the league) according to Yahoo). They are a little better against the run (11th) than they are the pass (31st), but they just flat out aren't good. Add to that the Albert Haynesworth drama and Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him this season. The Eagles, on the other hand, got rid of Donovan McNabb in the offseason and planned to go with Kevin Kolb at quarterback. One game and a concussion later, they've got Mike Vick starting and setting the world ablaze. The Eagles are 2-0 when Vick starts, with an offense that ranks in the top 10 (9th). In two starts, Vick has looked like a much improved quarterback, throwing significantly better than his career averages. I think McNabb will play well for the first time in a new jersey in front of the Philly crowd, but I think the Eagles offense will shred the skins' defense and win this one going away.
PICK- Eagles to win AND to cover
Game #13-
(-4) Bears @ Giants
Let me get this straight. You've got a 1-2 Giants team, coming off a 29-10 drubbing at the hands of the Tennessee Titans as a favorite going into a game against an undefeated Bears team coming off a victory over the high powered Green Bay Packers? Sure, the Bears haven't looked like world beaters in their three wins, but somehow they find a way to win. Jay Cutler has played better than I expected in Mike Martz's offense. I'm still not sold on the guy, but I'll give credit where credit is due. Defensively, the Bears have the best run defense in the league, which should prove to be handy against She-Li and the Giants. Last week, the Titans proved you can absorb a big day from Peyton's brother (386 yards passing) and still get a comfortable victory. The Giants are going to have to find a way to slow Cutler and the Bears' 5th ranked passing game down if they want a shot at winning this game. I don't see it happening.
PICK- Bears to win AND to cover
Game #14-
Patriots @ (-1) Dolphins
The Fins are prime time! Last week it was a Sunday night game (A loss to the Jets) and this week it's a Monday night game against the Patriots. This in an interesting game. Both teams are 2-1. Miami seems to be a little better than I anticipated. New England seems to be a little worse than I anticipated. Tom Brady and the Patriots bring a lot of offense (7th in the league, according to Yahoo) and lead the league in scoring (30 points a game), but they don't bring much defense (27th in the league). A poor Patriot defense is un-Belichickian. Miami, on the other hand, plays pretty good defense (11th), but only scores about 17 points a game. I can say that I'm not a big fan of Chad Henne. He didn't really impress me in college and so far hasn't done much to excite me in the NFL. Playing with Brandon Marshall obviously helps him, but I don't see them blowing up this week. The Dolphins and their wildcat formation always seem to give the Pats trouble, so if they get that working, this game could go either way (Thus the 1 point spread). I like the Patriots, but I don't think this is a game I'd put money on.
PICK- Patriots to win AND to cover
So there's my week #4 picks. A lot of these games could end up really close, so obviously take these picks with a grain of salt.
4 Game Parlay Picks:
Jets (+5.5) over Bills
Colts (+7.5) over Jaguars
Bears (-4) over Giants
Eagles (+6) over the Redskins
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Week #3- The End Complete...
Well, the final two games of week #3 were kind of a good news, bad news situation. The bad news is I went 1-1, losing a game I was pretty confident about. The good news is I won the final game of my 4 game parlay, going a perfect 4-0 this week. Not too shabby. Here's how it shook out...
Game #15-
(-2) Jets- 31 @ Dolphins- 23
Well, there were more points scored in this game than I anticipated, but the outcome was just as I predicted. For two straight weeks, Mark Sanchez has played a really good football game, throwing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns. Other than week 1 against Baltimore, Sanchez has looked pretty good against good football teams (New England, Miami). I'm not ready to add him to my fantasy team yet, but so far it looks like he's side stepping the sophomore slump. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Marshall had a great game (166 yds, 1 td), but the defense just couldn't stop Dustin Keller (98 yds, 2 tds) and Braylon Edwards (87 yds, 1 td...and how many times can we say someone COULDN'T stop Braylon Edwards?).
RESULT- Jets win AND cover (10-5, 10-5)
Game #16-
Packers- 17 @ (-3) Bears- 20
Wow, was I wrong on this game. As I said before, I expected Green Bay to march into Chicago and totally destroy the Bears. Watching the game and looking at the stats, the Pack beat them in almost all statistical categories (Total yards, first downs, time of possession), but were eventually doomed by the two things that doomed most of the losing teams this week...turnovers and special teams. Why anyone kicks to Devin Hester is beyond me. He's the best return man in the history of the NFL and for some reason, stubborn ass coaches think their special teams unit will be the one to stop him. Time and time again he proves them wrong. Overall, I'm still not convinced the Bears are a great team, but if they continue to find ways to win football games, I may have to eventually change my tune.
RESULT- Bears win AND cover (10-6, 10-6)
So, 10-6 is pretty respectable, but I'm royally stoked about going 4-0 in my parlay picks. Let's hope the trend continues into week #4.
Game #15-
(-2) Jets- 31 @ Dolphins- 23
Well, there were more points scored in this game than I anticipated, but the outcome was just as I predicted. For two straight weeks, Mark Sanchez has played a really good football game, throwing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns. Other than week 1 against Baltimore, Sanchez has looked pretty good against good football teams (New England, Miami). I'm not ready to add him to my fantasy team yet, but so far it looks like he's side stepping the sophomore slump. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Marshall had a great game (166 yds, 1 td), but the defense just couldn't stop Dustin Keller (98 yds, 2 tds) and Braylon Edwards (87 yds, 1 td...and how many times can we say someone COULDN'T stop Braylon Edwards?).
RESULT- Jets win AND cover (10-5, 10-5)
Game #16-
Packers- 17 @ (-3) Bears- 20
Wow, was I wrong on this game. As I said before, I expected Green Bay to march into Chicago and totally destroy the Bears. Watching the game and looking at the stats, the Pack beat them in almost all statistical categories (Total yards, first downs, time of possession), but were eventually doomed by the two things that doomed most of the losing teams this week...turnovers and special teams. Why anyone kicks to Devin Hester is beyond me. He's the best return man in the history of the NFL and for some reason, stubborn ass coaches think their special teams unit will be the one to stop him. Time and time again he proves them wrong. Overall, I'm still not convinced the Bears are a great team, but if they continue to find ways to win football games, I may have to eventually change my tune.
RESULT- Bears win AND cover (10-6, 10-6)
So, 10-6 is pretty respectable, but I'm royally stoked about going 4-0 in my parlay picks. Let's hope the trend continues into week #4.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
09/26 Late Games...
Ouch!!! The late games laid a whippin on my ass! As I said in the original post for this week, the reason picking NFL games is so challenging is because teams that should win always lose and teams that should lose always win. It pains me, but here's how it all broke down:
Game #10-
Redskins- 16 @ (-3.5) Rams- 30
Just when you thought the Washington McSkins had a little something going on, they go out and get rolled by a team that starts a rookie quarterback and only picked up a single win in 2009. I didn't watch the game, but looking at the box score, I can't exactly figure out why the skins got beat. They ran the ball well, averaging 6.8 yards a carry. Santana Moss had a good day (124 yds, 1 td) and the defense held the Rams to only field goals in the 4th quarter. Two telling numbers I see are first downs (13-23 in favor of the Rams) and 3rd down conversions (0-9). The big question I'm asking is if you're getting almost 7 yards a carry, why can't you get first downs? Regardless, in beating the Redskins this week, the Rams have now matched last year's number of wins. Just think...if they win one more game, they will have doubled their win total! Now that's improvement!
RESULT- Rams win AND cover (7-3, 6-4)
Game #11-
Eagles- 28 @ (-3.5) Jaguars- 3
NostraDonley strikes again. I said, unless Maurice Jones Drew (88 yds, 0 tds) goes apeshit, the Eagles should win this one comfortably. Honestly, even if MJD ran wild, I wasn't giving Jacksonville much of a chance of winning this game. I don't like the Jags on many different levels, but I think their biggest problem is the play of their quarterback, David Garrard. He's not going to put you in position to score many points when he goes 13 of 30 for 105 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. I think you could pull a drunken Bernie Kosar out of his luxury box, throw him on the field and he'd put up better numbers. Unless those numbers improve, I look for the Jaguars to have a long season, which as I mentioned before, could lead to a change of location. On the other side of the coin, Michael Vick put up another great game, passing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns as well as rushing for 30 yards and another score. Add that to the fact that the Eagles didn't turn over the football and you've got the recipe for wins.
RESULT- Eagles win AND cover (8-3, 7-4)
Game #12-
Colts- 27 @ (-5.5) Broncos- 13
Well, it wasn't quite the game I was expecting, but the outcome was just as I predicted. The Colts survived stellar performances from Bronco quarterback Kyle Orton (476 yards, 1 td) and wide receiver Brandon Lloyd (169 yds, 1 td) to get a tough win in Denver. The Broncos put up an astounding 519 yards of total offense, but turned the ball over twice and that proved to be the difference. Peyton Manning had a Manning-esque day, throwing for 325 yards and 3 scores, two of which went to Austin Collie (171 yds, 2 tds). All in all, a typical day for the Colts.
RESULT- Colts win AND cover (9-3, 8-4)
Game #13-
Chargers- 20 @ (-5.5) Seahawks- 27
Argh!! Every year there is a team that's a thorn in my side. Last year it was the Bengals. Every time I picked them to win, they lost. Every time I picked them to lose, they won. This year, that team is the San Diego Chargers. I can't figure them out and from this point forward, I vow to never include them in a parlay. They're too risky. The Seahawks are another team that has given me fits this season. I figured them for a 6-8 win team. New coach from the college ranks, old, brittle quarterback, weak skill players. This team has 6 wins written all over it, yet they continue to beat teams they shouldn't. I'm lumping Seattle into the same no parlay category as the Chargers. Piss on both these teams! Anyway, this particular game boiled down to special teams, which after letting Leon Washington rack up 253 return yards and 2 touchdowns, I'm sure will be a major topic at Chargers practice this week.
RESULT- Seahawks win AND cover (9-4, 8-5)
Game #14-
(-4.5) Raiders- 23 @ Cardinals- 24
Yet another game that was decided by the special teams. I bet Raiders' woman beating head coach, Tom Cable is PISSED that his team let some femme with two last names (LaRod Stephens-Howling) run the opening kick-off back 102 yards for a score, because other than that, the Cards didn't really do much. Derek Anderson had a whopping 122 yards passing and as a team, they only managed 119 yards on the ground. Pretty pathetic when you consider Darren McFadden had another 100 yard day (105 yds, 1 td). I figured this game would suck a fat one and ladies and gentlemen, it did not disappoint!
RESULT- Cardinals win AND Raiders cover (9-5, 9-5)
So, that leaves two more games for the week and I've got a good feeling about them both. Here's how the parlay looks after the late games:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers- WIN
Bengals (+3) over Panthers- WIN
Colts @ (-5.5) Broncos- WIN
GO JETS!
Game #10-
Redskins- 16 @ (-3.5) Rams- 30
Just when you thought the Washington McSkins had a little something going on, they go out and get rolled by a team that starts a rookie quarterback and only picked up a single win in 2009. I didn't watch the game, but looking at the box score, I can't exactly figure out why the skins got beat. They ran the ball well, averaging 6.8 yards a carry. Santana Moss had a good day (124 yds, 1 td) and the defense held the Rams to only field goals in the 4th quarter. Two telling numbers I see are first downs (13-23 in favor of the Rams) and 3rd down conversions (0-9). The big question I'm asking is if you're getting almost 7 yards a carry, why can't you get first downs? Regardless, in beating the Redskins this week, the Rams have now matched last year's number of wins. Just think...if they win one more game, they will have doubled their win total! Now that's improvement!
RESULT- Rams win AND cover (7-3, 6-4)
Game #11-
Eagles- 28 @ (-3.5) Jaguars- 3
NostraDonley strikes again. I said, unless Maurice Jones Drew (88 yds, 0 tds) goes apeshit, the Eagles should win this one comfortably. Honestly, even if MJD ran wild, I wasn't giving Jacksonville much of a chance of winning this game. I don't like the Jags on many different levels, but I think their biggest problem is the play of their quarterback, David Garrard. He's not going to put you in position to score many points when he goes 13 of 30 for 105 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. I think you could pull a drunken Bernie Kosar out of his luxury box, throw him on the field and he'd put up better numbers. Unless those numbers improve, I look for the Jaguars to have a long season, which as I mentioned before, could lead to a change of location. On the other side of the coin, Michael Vick put up another great game, passing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns as well as rushing for 30 yards and another score. Add that to the fact that the Eagles didn't turn over the football and you've got the recipe for wins.
RESULT- Eagles win AND cover (8-3, 7-4)
Game #12-
Colts- 27 @ (-5.5) Broncos- 13
Well, it wasn't quite the game I was expecting, but the outcome was just as I predicted. The Colts survived stellar performances from Bronco quarterback Kyle Orton (476 yards, 1 td) and wide receiver Brandon Lloyd (169 yds, 1 td) to get a tough win in Denver. The Broncos put up an astounding 519 yards of total offense, but turned the ball over twice and that proved to be the difference. Peyton Manning had a Manning-esque day, throwing for 325 yards and 3 scores, two of which went to Austin Collie (171 yds, 2 tds). All in all, a typical day for the Colts.
RESULT- Colts win AND cover (9-3, 8-4)
Game #13-
Chargers- 20 @ (-5.5) Seahawks- 27
Argh!! Every year there is a team that's a thorn in my side. Last year it was the Bengals. Every time I picked them to win, they lost. Every time I picked them to lose, they won. This year, that team is the San Diego Chargers. I can't figure them out and from this point forward, I vow to never include them in a parlay. They're too risky. The Seahawks are another team that has given me fits this season. I figured them for a 6-8 win team. New coach from the college ranks, old, brittle quarterback, weak skill players. This team has 6 wins written all over it, yet they continue to beat teams they shouldn't. I'm lumping Seattle into the same no parlay category as the Chargers. Piss on both these teams! Anyway, this particular game boiled down to special teams, which after letting Leon Washington rack up 253 return yards and 2 touchdowns, I'm sure will be a major topic at Chargers practice this week.
RESULT- Seahawks win AND cover (9-4, 8-5)
Game #14-
(-4.5) Raiders- 23 @ Cardinals- 24
Yet another game that was decided by the special teams. I bet Raiders' woman beating head coach, Tom Cable is PISSED that his team let some femme with two last names (LaRod Stephens-Howling) run the opening kick-off back 102 yards for a score, because other than that, the Cards didn't really do much. Derek Anderson had a whopping 122 yards passing and as a team, they only managed 119 yards on the ground. Pretty pathetic when you consider Darren McFadden had another 100 yard day (105 yds, 1 td). I figured this game would suck a fat one and ladies and gentlemen, it did not disappoint!
RESULT- Cardinals win AND Raiders cover (9-5, 9-5)
So, that leaves two more games for the week and I've got a good feeling about them both. Here's how the parlay looks after the late games:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers- WIN
Bengals (+3) over Panthers- WIN
Colts @ (-5.5) Broncos- WIN
GO JETS!
09/26 Early Games...
So far, so good on the early games. Of the 9 games played thus far, I've gone 7-2, losing only the Kansas City/San Francisco and New Orleans/Atlanta games. Here's how it breaks down:
Game #1-
(-3) Titans- 29 @ New York Giants- 10
I said one of the things that scared me about the Giants was their run defense and it looks like I had reason to be scared. Yet again, the Giants let someone run wild, as Chris Johnson rumbled for 125 yards and 2 tds. She-Li Manning had a decent game (386 yds passing), but 2 interceptions and no touchdowns from your quarterback will kill you every time.
RESULT- Titans win AND cover (1-0, 1-0)
Game #2-
(-14) Bills- 30 @ Patriots- 38
The Bills burnt me this week. Not in my wildest dreams did I expect them to put up 30 points on the Patriots. CJ Spiller made the biggest impact for the Bills, with a receiving touchdown and 189 return yards and a touchdown. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady had similar passing numbers, but Fitzpatrick's 2 interceptions to Brady's 0 ultimately doomed the Bills. Still, I hate huge spreads and once again, the Bills find a way to screw me.
RESULT- Patriots win AND Bills cover (2-0, 1-1)
Game #3-
(-10.5) Browns- 17 @ Ravens- 24
Well, the Ravens finally put some points on the board. They got a pretty good game out of Joe Flacco (262 yds passing, 3 tds) and a superhuman game out of Anquan Boldin (142 yds receiving, 3 tds), but the run defense was nowhere to be found, letting Peyton Hillis, a 6'2", 250 pound white dude from Arkansas rumble for 144 yards a a touchdown. I absolutely thought the Brownies would show up in Baltimore and get a mud hole stomped in every one of their asses. Surprising final score, considering it was a home game and the discrepancy in talent.
RESULT- Ravens win AND Browns cover (3-0, 1-2)
Game #4-
Steelers- 38 @ (-2.5) Buccaneers- 13
Well, I was mostly right about this game. The Steelers defense is a world beater and they stifled Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay offense with relative ease. That wasn't surprising in the slightest. However, I was very surprised the Steelers were able to overcome a 2 interception game by their fourth string quarterback and still manage to put up 38 points on the board. Batch wasn't great today (186 yards passing), but he did throw 3 touchdowns (2 of which went to Mike Wallace). Rashard Mendenhall ran hard (143 yards, 1 td) and the Steelers' train keeps on rolling. Just imagine what this team will do when Big Ben comes back (assuming he doesn't force himself on anyone between now and then).
RESULT- Steelers win AND cover (4-0, 2-2)
Game #5-
Bengals- 20 @ (-3) Panthers- 7
Not exactly a rout, but a pretty easy win for the Bungles down in Carolina. Cedric Benson had a pretty good game (81 yards rushing, 1 rec. td/1 rush. td) and Mike Nugent continues to Mr. Consistency (2-2 xps/2-2 fgs). Carson Palmer didn't quite have the game I expected out of him (195 yds passing, 1 td, 2 ints), but the defense stepped up and held the Panthers to under 300 yards of total offense. For the last two weeks, Cincy has looked pretty stout, so the AFC North could turn out to be a slug-fest between the Bungles, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
RESULT- Bengals win AND cover (5-0, 3-2)
Game #6-
(-3.5) Falcons- 27 @ Saints- 24 OT
My first loss of the week and the Saints' first loss of the season. As I expected, this turned out to be a great football game (the game, not the outcome), but I'm still unclear as to what kind of team the Super Bowl champs (I plan to say that as much as possible) have this season. Brees put up decent numbers today (365 yds passing, 3 tds, 2 ints), but also made a couple un-Brees like mental errors. Lance Moore had a helluva game (149 yds, 2 tds), but the trio of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem combined for 7 receptions and 53 yards. On the other side of the ball, the ageless wonder Tony Gonzalez had a great game for an old man (110 yds rec, 1 td) as did Michael Turner (114 yds rush, 1 td). Turnovers were the key to this game, with NOLA giving it up 3 times and Atlanta only once.
RESULT- Falcons win AND cover (5-1, 4-2)
Game #7-
49ers- 10 @ (-2.5) Chiefs- 31
I am officially off the 49ers bandwagon. The insane thing is that despite the fact that the 49ers seem to be a shitty football team, they'll probably still make the playoffs because they are the best, crappy football team in the NFC West. This might be the first time in history that a team with a sub-500 record makes the playoffs and I'm sure some 10-6 or 11-5 NFC team will be screaming at the end of the season when they get shut out of the playoffs (God, I hope it's not the Saints). On the other side of the fence, Kansas City has been playing pretty good football against 2 bad teams (Cleveland & San Fran) and 1 OK team (San Diego). I like their two-headed monster at running back (Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones) and as long as they aren't put into a situation where Matt Cassel has to win a game for them, I think they'll be all right the rest of the way out.
RESULT- Chiefs win AND cover (5-2, 5-2)
Game #8-
(-11) Detroit- 10 @ Minnesota- 24
Well, Minnesota got their first win, but man, was it ugly. Brett Favre threw 2 more picks (was almost 3 or 4) to bring his season total to 6. He tossed a touchdown pass, 2 tds in 3 games isn't going to get the job done. God help em if Adrian Peterson gets hurt because right now, he is absolutely the only Minnesota Viking doing ANYTHING positive on the offensive side of the football. If they don't make some vast improvements in a hurry, this team will be lucky to win 8 games. Speaking of lucky to win 8 games, Detroit didn't come to play like I expected today. Jahvid Best was nowhere to be found and their leading receiver was a tight end (Tony Scheffler). It won't get any easier for the Lions next week when the travel to Green Bay, so it looks like yet another disappointment in Motown.
RESULT- Vikings win AND cover (6-2, 5-3)
Game #9-
(-3) Dallas- 27 @ Houston- 13
Anyone with a brain saw this game coming a mile away. I said I'd be very surprised if Dallas didn't win this game by 10+ and what do you know, they win by 14. Actually, the final *should* have been 27-6, but Houston added a late (1:15 left in the 4th) touchdown to make it look a little more respectable. I'm still not sold on the Cowboys, but the offense finally showed up for the first time this season. Tony Romo had a respectable game (284 yds, 2 tds, 0 ints) and after almost 2 seasons, Roy Williams finally left the witness protection program (117 yds, 2 td). In the long run, I still believe Houston is the best team in Texas, but I'm concerned with the fact that Andre Johnson has gotten banged up two weeks in a row. Other than Matt Schaub, he is the man they can least afford to lose.
RESULT- Cowboys win AND cover (7-2, 6-3)
Looking at my 4 team parlay, I've won the first two, with two more to go:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers- WIN
Bengals (+3) over Panthers- WIN
Game #1-
(-3) Titans- 29 @ New York Giants- 10
I said one of the things that scared me about the Giants was their run defense and it looks like I had reason to be scared. Yet again, the Giants let someone run wild, as Chris Johnson rumbled for 125 yards and 2 tds. She-Li Manning had a decent game (386 yds passing), but 2 interceptions and no touchdowns from your quarterback will kill you every time.
RESULT- Titans win AND cover (1-0, 1-0)
Game #2-
(-14) Bills- 30 @ Patriots- 38
The Bills burnt me this week. Not in my wildest dreams did I expect them to put up 30 points on the Patriots. CJ Spiller made the biggest impact for the Bills, with a receiving touchdown and 189 return yards and a touchdown. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady had similar passing numbers, but Fitzpatrick's 2 interceptions to Brady's 0 ultimately doomed the Bills. Still, I hate huge spreads and once again, the Bills find a way to screw me.
RESULT- Patriots win AND Bills cover (2-0, 1-1)
Game #3-
(-10.5) Browns- 17 @ Ravens- 24
Well, the Ravens finally put some points on the board. They got a pretty good game out of Joe Flacco (262 yds passing, 3 tds) and a superhuman game out of Anquan Boldin (142 yds receiving, 3 tds), but the run defense was nowhere to be found, letting Peyton Hillis, a 6'2", 250 pound white dude from Arkansas rumble for 144 yards a a touchdown. I absolutely thought the Brownies would show up in Baltimore and get a mud hole stomped in every one of their asses. Surprising final score, considering it was a home game and the discrepancy in talent.
RESULT- Ravens win AND Browns cover (3-0, 1-2)
Game #4-
Steelers- 38 @ (-2.5) Buccaneers- 13
Well, I was mostly right about this game. The Steelers defense is a world beater and they stifled Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay offense with relative ease. That wasn't surprising in the slightest. However, I was very surprised the Steelers were able to overcome a 2 interception game by their fourth string quarterback and still manage to put up 38 points on the board. Batch wasn't great today (186 yards passing), but he did throw 3 touchdowns (2 of which went to Mike Wallace). Rashard Mendenhall ran hard (143 yards, 1 td) and the Steelers' train keeps on rolling. Just imagine what this team will do when Big Ben comes back (assuming he doesn't force himself on anyone between now and then).
RESULT- Steelers win AND cover (4-0, 2-2)
Game #5-
Bengals- 20 @ (-3) Panthers- 7
Not exactly a rout, but a pretty easy win for the Bungles down in Carolina. Cedric Benson had a pretty good game (81 yards rushing, 1 rec. td/1 rush. td) and Mike Nugent continues to Mr. Consistency (2-2 xps/2-2 fgs). Carson Palmer didn't quite have the game I expected out of him (195 yds passing, 1 td, 2 ints), but the defense stepped up and held the Panthers to under 300 yards of total offense. For the last two weeks, Cincy has looked pretty stout, so the AFC North could turn out to be a slug-fest between the Bungles, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
RESULT- Bengals win AND cover (5-0, 3-2)
Game #6-
(-3.5) Falcons- 27 @ Saints- 24 OT
My first loss of the week and the Saints' first loss of the season. As I expected, this turned out to be a great football game (the game, not the outcome), but I'm still unclear as to what kind of team the Super Bowl champs (I plan to say that as much as possible) have this season. Brees put up decent numbers today (365 yds passing, 3 tds, 2 ints), but also made a couple un-Brees like mental errors. Lance Moore had a helluva game (149 yds, 2 tds), but the trio of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem combined for 7 receptions and 53 yards. On the other side of the ball, the ageless wonder Tony Gonzalez had a great game for an old man (110 yds rec, 1 td) as did Michael Turner (114 yds rush, 1 td). Turnovers were the key to this game, with NOLA giving it up 3 times and Atlanta only once.
RESULT- Falcons win AND cover (5-1, 4-2)
Game #7-
49ers- 10 @ (-2.5) Chiefs- 31
I am officially off the 49ers bandwagon. The insane thing is that despite the fact that the 49ers seem to be a shitty football team, they'll probably still make the playoffs because they are the best, crappy football team in the NFC West. This might be the first time in history that a team with a sub-500 record makes the playoffs and I'm sure some 10-6 or 11-5 NFC team will be screaming at the end of the season when they get shut out of the playoffs (God, I hope it's not the Saints). On the other side of the fence, Kansas City has been playing pretty good football against 2 bad teams (Cleveland & San Fran) and 1 OK team (San Diego). I like their two-headed monster at running back (Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones) and as long as they aren't put into a situation where Matt Cassel has to win a game for them, I think they'll be all right the rest of the way out.
RESULT- Chiefs win AND cover (5-2, 5-2)
Game #8-
(-11) Detroit- 10 @ Minnesota- 24
Well, Minnesota got their first win, but man, was it ugly. Brett Favre threw 2 more picks (was almost 3 or 4) to bring his season total to 6. He tossed a touchdown pass, 2 tds in 3 games isn't going to get the job done. God help em if Adrian Peterson gets hurt because right now, he is absolutely the only Minnesota Viking doing ANYTHING positive on the offensive side of the football. If they don't make some vast improvements in a hurry, this team will be lucky to win 8 games. Speaking of lucky to win 8 games, Detroit didn't come to play like I expected today. Jahvid Best was nowhere to be found and their leading receiver was a tight end (Tony Scheffler). It won't get any easier for the Lions next week when the travel to Green Bay, so it looks like yet another disappointment in Motown.
RESULT- Vikings win AND cover (6-2, 5-3)
Game #9-
(-3) Dallas- 27 @ Houston- 13
Anyone with a brain saw this game coming a mile away. I said I'd be very surprised if Dallas didn't win this game by 10+ and what do you know, they win by 14. Actually, the final *should* have been 27-6, but Houston added a late (1:15 left in the 4th) touchdown to make it look a little more respectable. I'm still not sold on the Cowboys, but the offense finally showed up for the first time this season. Tony Romo had a respectable game (284 yds, 2 tds, 0 ints) and after almost 2 seasons, Roy Williams finally left the witness protection program (117 yds, 2 td). In the long run, I still believe Houston is the best team in Texas, but I'm concerned with the fact that Andre Johnson has gotten banged up two weeks in a row. Other than Matt Schaub, he is the man they can least afford to lose.
RESULT- Cowboys win AND cover (7-2, 6-3)
Looking at my 4 team parlay, I've won the first two, with two more to go:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers- WIN
Bengals (+3) over Panthers- WIN
Friday, September 24, 2010
NFL Picks: Week #3
Greetings and salutations. I created this blog as a place to keep track of my (hopefully) amazingly spot-on NFL picks and bets. I'm by no means an expert and the closest I've ever come to gambling is fantasy football, so the possibility that this could end really, really bad is Bad +30. So, without further adieu, let's get to the picks and bets for week #3 of the NFL season.
Game #1-
(-3) Titans @ New York Giants
I'm taking the Titans in this game. Both teams are coming off shellackings and both are 1-1 against the spread so far this year. Two things scare me about the Giants. First, they were only able to muster 120 rushing yards against a Colts run defense that made Arian Foster look like the love child of Bo Jackson and Walter Payton. Second, their defense allowed eternal scumbags Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to rumble for 160 yards. When you let a guy named Donald average over 4 yards a carry, you've got troubles. And sadly, those troubles are only going to get worse this week when Chris Johnson comes to town. He may have a stupid haircut and he may look like the predator, but that guy can run the football and I have a feeling he's going to run all over the G Men.
PICK- Titans to win AND to cover.
Game #2-
(-14) Bills @ Patriots
The Bills suck, there's no denying that. They're 0-2 against the spread and have been outscored by a margin of 49-17. Granted, both teams they've played so far are 2-0, but that doesn't change the fact that the Bills are putrid. Offensively, bearded lumberjack Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod at quarterback this week, which HAS to be better than Trent Edwards and his 120 yards a game and 58.3% passer rating, but come on. In 10 games last year, Fitzpatrick had 10 interceptions and 9 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 69.7%, so he's no messiah for Buffalo. The fact that the Bills' offensive line stinks and Roscoe Parrish is his best receiving option obviously limits what he can do, so it's not entirely his fault. Bottom line, I'm definitely taking New England to win, but the question is will they cover? Last week, Green Bay gave Buffalo (-12.5) points and I was scared to death of that bet. I liked Green Bay to win, but I thought (-12.5) was a lot to give up. Obviously I was wrong, with the Pack winning by 27 points. So this week, in the words of Steven Tyler, I'm gonna be "Livin' on the edge."
PICK- Patriots to win AND to cover
Game #3-
(-10.5) Browns @ Ravens
Ahh, the Clowns and the poor people of Cleveland. It's not bad enough that they live in the dirtiest city in America (unofficial), but their baseball team is garbage, their basketball team is mostly likely going to be garbage (unless Anderson Varejao leads them to the promised land...) and the Browns look like they're off to another 3 win season. I could see Cleveland fans being optimistic heading into the first two games of the season. Kansas City had 4 wins last year and Tampa Bay had 3, so it was realistic to think the Browns could start off 2010, 2-0. Unfortunately for the dog pound, the Chiefs and Buccs had other ideas and the Browns are sitting at a cold 0-2, 0-1-1 against the spread. On the positive side, they've lost by a combined total of 5 points, so they're putting up a fight, but on the negative side, they're starting Seneca Wallace against Ray Lewis and the Ravens this week. With all the additions to the offensive side of the ball, I expected big things from Baltimore this year, but so far, it's been a typical Ravens team, scoring 10 points and relying on the defense. I still think the Ravens will start to put points up on the board, but Joe Flacco can't have any more 4 interception games. Bottom line, the Brownies hate Baltimore, so they'll come out swinging, but I think this is the game where Flacco and the Ravens break loose and put up the numbers I've expected from them.
PICK- Ravens to win AND to cover
Game #4-
Steelers @ (-2.5) Buccaneers
For me, this is the most interesting pick of the week. Pittsburgh is 2-0 against the spread, their defense has been killing people so far and they're playing a team whose quarterback is starting only his 12th game. The big question mark is Charlie Batch and the Steelers offense. Looking at the stats, Chuckles has only thrown 23 passes since 2007, so you don't really know what to expect. He was never a guy to set the world on fire, which explains why over the span of a 12 year career, he's only started more than 12 games one time, but I like the fact that he's been in this system since 2003. I think the steel curtain is going to stifle Tampa Bay's offense, so if Batch is efficient with the football, I could see Pittsburgh covering this game easily. But, there's also the possibility that Batch o'cookies will go out there and throw 4 picks. I'll take the former.
PICK- Steelers to win AND to cover
Game #5-
Bengals @ (-3) Panthers
I really like this game. The Bungles are 1-1 on the season and 1-1 against the spread, but are coming off a huge victory over the Ravens. Carolina, on the other hand, got beaten like a drum last week by Tampa Bay. Without Julius Peppers, the Carolina defense has been soft (Imagine that??). The defensive line hasn't recorded a sack yet and so far, the team as a whole only has 1. That tells me Carson Palmer is going to have all day to find T.O. and Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him anything else). I'm also pretty high on the Bungles' defense. Joe Flacco is a pretty decent quarterback and as I mentioned above, the Bengals frustrated him into throwing 4 interceptions (the most of his career). If they can do that to Flacco, just imagine what they're going to do to that Notre Dame turd, Jimmy Clausen. I like the Bengals in a rout.
PICK- Bengals to win AND to cover
Game #6-
(-3.5) Falcons @ Saints
I don't know what to think about the Saints yet? Sure, they're 2-0, but they're 0-2 against the spread, which tells me they haven't been (or aren't) as good as people have expected. At times, they show flashes of brilliance on the offensive side of the football, while at others, they just look confused. The Minnesota game is an excellent example. The first drive of the game, they marched right down the field, making it look easy. Then it was like they hit a wall and started playing like they couldn't move the ball against a pop-warner team. This week brings the Atlanta Falcons to town, fresh off a drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals. People are going to look at that 41-7 final and think the Falcons are for real, but I'll reserve judgment for now. I'm thinking that 34 point win is more a reflection on how bad the Cards are this season. So, as far as this game goes, I think the Falcons will play the Saints tough on the road, but in the end, the Saints' 10th ranked defense will slow the Falcons' offense down just enough to preserve a win for the good guys. Covering the spread is another story.
PICK- Saints to win AND Falcons to cover
Game #7-
49ers @ (-2.5) Chiefs
Someone break up the Chiefs!! If you told me after only winning 4 games last year that the Chiefs would start off the season 2-0, I might have have slapped your cheek and informed you that your knowledge of football was less than impressive. I think the fact that Kansas City and Tampa Bay are both undefeated is the biggest story of this young season so far. I think the players out in K.C. are starting to buy into what head coach Todd Haley is selling and if there was ever a season where they could sneak around and win the AFC West, it's 2010. Eventually, I think San Diego will right the ship and win the division, but when it's all said and done, the Chiefs will have more wins (by 5 or 6) than most people predicted. On the other hand, San Francisco is a team a lot of "experts" (me included) predicted to win 10 or more games and win the NFC West. Unfortunately for them (and for the experts who picked them), they've started off 0-2, going 1-1 against the spread. After watching Pete Carroll and his Seattle Trojans stomp a mudhole in the 49ers' ass in week 1, I thought I could be dead wrong about the niners. But, I liked the way they responded last week against the world champs, taking them to the final buzzer. So, I think the 49ers build off what they did against the Saints and hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season. The Chiefs will play them close, though and should cover.
PICK- 49ers to win AND Chiefs to cover
Game #8-
(-11) Detroit @ Minnesota
Who else thinks Brett Favre should have stayed in the backyard, playing two-hand touch with all his Wrangler wearing buddies? If you ask me, this season had disaster written on it from the moment his three teammates had to fly to Mississippi and drag him to Minnesota. You can tell by Favre's body language that he doesn't want to be there and his 4 picks, 1 touchdown and 56.1 passer rating do nothing to tell me otherwise. For the first time in his life, Brett Favre looks old and that doesn't bode well for a Vikings team that needs him to be the Brett Favre of 2009. On the other side of the coin, Detroit is 0-2 as well, but they're one craptastic call away from being 1-1. They seem to be much improved this season and so far, I'm liking what I'm seeing out of Jahvid Best, who incidentally, was my sleeper pick for offensive rookie of the year. After the monster game he put up last week against Philly, I'm not sure I can call him a sleeper any more. So, as far as the game goes, I can't see Minnesota, one of the sexy Super Bowl picks, going 0-3. Being in Minneapolis, the Vikings should win this one, but I look for Detroit to play them close to the vest and get the cover.
PICK- Vikings to win AND Lions to cover
Game #9-
(-3) Dallas @ Houston
I have to say, nothing puts a smile on my face like watching the Cowboys lose. Being a Saints fan, I'm expected to dislike teams like Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina, but if I'm being honest, I would say there isn't a team in the league that I despise more than the Dallas Cowboys. It was the equivalent to a football orgasm watching them make the playoffs every year, only to lose. I don't think I'll ever get tired of watching the video of Tony Romo sitting on the turf, hanging his head in shame after he muffed the hold on that kick against the Seahawks. Ahh, the memories, but enough about the past, let's talk about the 0-2, 2010 Dallas Cowboys. I shouldn't take as much pleasure in their losses, considering I've picked them to win two weeks in a row, but damn, this feels good. Especially considering most of the so-called "experts" (You won't find me in this list) picked the Cowboys to be the fist team in the history of the league to host a Super Bowl. If they still consider that a realistic goal (which I don't), they need to get a whole lot better real quick. On the flip-side, the 2-0 Houston Texans are a team from Texas that's actually good. Going into the season, I was expecting big things from this team and so far they haven't disappointed. Having said that, I fully expect them to get waxed by Dallas this week. I've seen this scenario play out time and time again. One team whips the others' ass in the preseason. The regular season starts and one team struggles while the other team succeeds. They eventually play again down the road and what happens? The team living on skid row wins every time! I would be very surprised if Dallas didn't win this game by 10+.
PICK- Dallas to win AND to cover
Game #10-
Redskins @ (-3.5) Rams
I just can't get excited about this game. The Skins added Donovan McNabb in the offseason, which even in his ripe old age, is a major upgrade over Jason Campbell (How's he working out in Oakland? Somewhere between Todd Marinovich and JaMarcus Russell.), but it just didn't do much for me. I also know the Skins beat Dallas (0-2...I love bringing that up) and played Houston to overtime, but I'm just not sold on them yet. As long as Mike Shannahan focuses more on football and less on idiotic conditioning tests for fat defensive linemen, I think he'll eventually be able to turn the Redskins into a decent team. It just won't be this season. Lucky for them, they've got Sam Bradford and the hapless Rams this week. The Rams played tough against Oakland and Arizona, but you have to consider they were playing Oakland and Arizona. I've seen a high school team or two that could play those teams tough. Despite the fact that I'm still unsold on the Skins, I don't think they should have any trouble with the St. Louis Bradfords.
PICK- Redskins to win AND to cover
Game #11-
Eagles @ (-3.5) Jaguars
So, Michael Vick is the Eagles' starting quarterback for the second straight week and according to Andy Reid, for the rest of the season. I was never really a Vick fan, so for me, this move doesn't do a lot to give me confidence about the Philadelphia Eagles. He's got a career QB rating of 76.8 and a completion percentage of 54.0%. That's not very good. I understand why the Eagles decided to go with Vick. Supposedly, their offensive line is garbage and unlike Kevin Kolb, Vick is more mobile. If the Eagles still consider Kolb to be the future, I'm sure they didn't want him taking snaps behind a line that was going to get him killed when they had options. So, we'll see? Now that Vick doesn't have to worry about the day-to-day operations of Bad Newz Kennels, maybe his completion percentage will improve? As far as this week's game, they're playing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are one crappy season away from playing football in LA. The Jags have always seemed to me to be one of those teams that if they just disappeared, nobody would notice. They have no identity and nothing about that team stands out. Even their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew is nondescript. Bottom line, I like the Eagles in this game. They haven't had much trouble putting points on the board and I don't see that changing against the Jags and their 29th ranked defense. Unless MJD goes apeshit, look for Philly to win this one comfortably.
PICK- Eagles to win AND to cover
Game #12-
Colts @ (-5.5) Broncos
Another season and another tragedy for the Denver Broncos. On Monday, Broncos receiver Kenny McKinley was found dead in his home, the result of an apparent suicide. This is the third Bronco death since 2007, which tells me, if I were an NFL free agent, I'd be looking for some place OTHER than Denver to play football! All joking aside, a team tragedy is never a good thing when it comes to winning football games, especially when you're going into a week where you're facing a guy like Peyton Manning. I didn't expect much from Denver in the first place, but when you're going into a game without your best defensive player (Elvis Dumerville), facing a team like the Colts that can score in a hurry, if you're head and heart aren't 100% in it, even the best team could get rolled in the blink of an eye. Which is exactly what I expect to happen to Denver this weekend. I see Manning and the Colts scoring early and often, cruising to an easy victory.
PICK- Colts to win AND to cover
Game #13-
Chargers @ (-5.5) Seahawks
This past off-season, San Diego lost the face of their franchise (LaDanian Tomlinson), one of their biggest offensive threats (Vincent Jackson to a hold-out and suspension) and the protector of their quarterback (Left Tackle Marcus McNeill to a hold-out). All that said, I still penciled them in for an AFC West championship. And then the Chiefs beat them in week 1. And LT's replacement, rookie Ryan Matthews developed a severe case of fumbleitis. So where does that leave the Chargers? If you ask me, looking at the competition, I'd still say they're poised to win the AFC West. Sure, the Chiefs look improved, but there's no way I'm picking a team that won 4 games last year to win a division. The Chargers still have Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates, so barring injury, they should be fine over the long haul. On the other hand, the Seahawks came out guns blazing in week 1, laying a whipping on the 49ers. I didn't see that one coming and for about 6 days, I thought I might have the wrong impression of the hawks. And then they went to Denver and got peeled 31-14. I don't see the Seahawks doing anything this year because I don't think Pete Carroll's "rah-rah" college atmosphere is going to work with professional athletes making millions of dollars. That being said, I look for the Chargers to win this game by 10+ points.
PICK- Chargers to win AND to cover
Game #14-
(-4.5) Raiders @ Cardinals
This has to be the worst game of the week. The Raiders are coming off a HUGE win against the Rams (Sarcasm?). The Cards, on the other hand are coming off a good old fashioned 41-7 turkey stomping at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. There isn't anything I like about either one of these teams. Sure, Darren McFadden has run well, but he's injury prone and the bulk of his rushing numbers (145 yds) came against the Rams. You could also make a case for Larry Fitzgerald, but his stock dropped when Kurt Warner decided to dance with the stars. I don't care who you are, when Derek Anderson is throwing you the football, your stock is going to drop. Anyway, I'm going out on a limb with this one and picking the Raiders. The Cards showed last week that you can run on them (221 to the Falcons), so I'm thinking McFadden has a good shot to get a lot of yards this week. We'll see...
PICK- Raiders to win AND to cover
Game #15-
(-2) Jets @ Dolphins
I'm surprised the Jets are the underdogs in this game. Sure, Miami is 2-0, beating the likes of Buffalo and Minnesota, but going into the season, the Jets were picked to win the AFC East and make the Super Bowl. Plus, they're coming off a big win against the Patriots, which is significantly more impressive to me than a win over the Vikings. I'm not sold on Mark Sanchez yet, but last week he was efficient (21-30) and effective (220 yds, 3 tds). I know Darrelle Revis is out this week, but that defense didn't look too bad without him in the preseason and Brandon Marshall hasn't exactly set the world on fire down in South Beach. I look for Chad Henne and the fins to lose their first game this week in a close, defensive struggle.
PICK- Jets to win AND to cover
Game #16-
Packers @ (-3) Bears
Hear me when I say this, the Chicago Bears are a fraud! They beat the Lions on a terrible, last second call and they beat a Dallas team that right now probably couldn't beat the St. Louis Rams. I think Jay Cutler is a bum and always have. I picked Green Bay to win the NFC North and I think they will head into the windy city and beat the Bears to death. I look for Aaron Rogers to have another monster game while Charles Woodson and the defense shuts down Cutler, Forte and the Bears. Reality will slap the Bears on the cheek this week and put them back on the track of finishing third in the North.
PICK- Packers to win AND to cover
So, there's my take on week #3. The reason picking NFL games is so challenging is because every week teams that should win always lose and teams that should lose always win, so we'll see how I do. My four team parlay for the week looks like this:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers
Colts (+5.5) over Broncos
Jets (-2) over Dolphins
Bengals (+3) over Panthers
Game #1-
(-3) Titans @ New York Giants
I'm taking the Titans in this game. Both teams are coming off shellackings and both are 1-1 against the spread so far this year. Two things scare me about the Giants. First, they were only able to muster 120 rushing yards against a Colts run defense that made Arian Foster look like the love child of Bo Jackson and Walter Payton. Second, their defense allowed eternal scumbags Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to rumble for 160 yards. When you let a guy named Donald average over 4 yards a carry, you've got troubles. And sadly, those troubles are only going to get worse this week when Chris Johnson comes to town. He may have a stupid haircut and he may look like the predator, but that guy can run the football and I have a feeling he's going to run all over the G Men.
PICK- Titans to win AND to cover.
Game #2-
(-14) Bills @ Patriots
The Bills suck, there's no denying that. They're 0-2 against the spread and have been outscored by a margin of 49-17. Granted, both teams they've played so far are 2-0, but that doesn't change the fact that the Bills are putrid. Offensively, bearded lumberjack Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod at quarterback this week, which HAS to be better than Trent Edwards and his 120 yards a game and 58.3% passer rating, but come on. In 10 games last year, Fitzpatrick had 10 interceptions and 9 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 69.7%, so he's no messiah for Buffalo. The fact that the Bills' offensive line stinks and Roscoe Parrish is his best receiving option obviously limits what he can do, so it's not entirely his fault. Bottom line, I'm definitely taking New England to win, but the question is will they cover? Last week, Green Bay gave Buffalo (-12.5) points and I was scared to death of that bet. I liked Green Bay to win, but I thought (-12.5) was a lot to give up. Obviously I was wrong, with the Pack winning by 27 points. So this week, in the words of Steven Tyler, I'm gonna be "Livin' on the edge."
PICK- Patriots to win AND to cover
Game #3-
(-10.5) Browns @ Ravens
Ahh, the Clowns and the poor people of Cleveland. It's not bad enough that they live in the dirtiest city in America (unofficial), but their baseball team is garbage, their basketball team is mostly likely going to be garbage (unless Anderson Varejao leads them to the promised land...) and the Browns look like they're off to another 3 win season. I could see Cleveland fans being optimistic heading into the first two games of the season. Kansas City had 4 wins last year and Tampa Bay had 3, so it was realistic to think the Browns could start off 2010, 2-0. Unfortunately for the dog pound, the Chiefs and Buccs had other ideas and the Browns are sitting at a cold 0-2, 0-1-1 against the spread. On the positive side, they've lost by a combined total of 5 points, so they're putting up a fight, but on the negative side, they're starting Seneca Wallace against Ray Lewis and the Ravens this week. With all the additions to the offensive side of the ball, I expected big things from Baltimore this year, but so far, it's been a typical Ravens team, scoring 10 points and relying on the defense. I still think the Ravens will start to put points up on the board, but Joe Flacco can't have any more 4 interception games. Bottom line, the Brownies hate Baltimore, so they'll come out swinging, but I think this is the game where Flacco and the Ravens break loose and put up the numbers I've expected from them.
PICK- Ravens to win AND to cover
Game #4-
Steelers @ (-2.5) Buccaneers
For me, this is the most interesting pick of the week. Pittsburgh is 2-0 against the spread, their defense has been killing people so far and they're playing a team whose quarterback is starting only his 12th game. The big question mark is Charlie Batch and the Steelers offense. Looking at the stats, Chuckles has only thrown 23 passes since 2007, so you don't really know what to expect. He was never a guy to set the world on fire, which explains why over the span of a 12 year career, he's only started more than 12 games one time, but I like the fact that he's been in this system since 2003. I think the steel curtain is going to stifle Tampa Bay's offense, so if Batch is efficient with the football, I could see Pittsburgh covering this game easily. But, there's also the possibility that Batch o'cookies will go out there and throw 4 picks. I'll take the former.
PICK- Steelers to win AND to cover
Game #5-
Bengals @ (-3) Panthers
I really like this game. The Bungles are 1-1 on the season and 1-1 against the spread, but are coming off a huge victory over the Ravens. Carolina, on the other hand, got beaten like a drum last week by Tampa Bay. Without Julius Peppers, the Carolina defense has been soft (Imagine that??). The defensive line hasn't recorded a sack yet and so far, the team as a whole only has 1. That tells me Carson Palmer is going to have all day to find T.O. and Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him anything else). I'm also pretty high on the Bungles' defense. Joe Flacco is a pretty decent quarterback and as I mentioned above, the Bengals frustrated him into throwing 4 interceptions (the most of his career). If they can do that to Flacco, just imagine what they're going to do to that Notre Dame turd, Jimmy Clausen. I like the Bengals in a rout.
PICK- Bengals to win AND to cover
Game #6-
(-3.5) Falcons @ Saints
I don't know what to think about the Saints yet? Sure, they're 2-0, but they're 0-2 against the spread, which tells me they haven't been (or aren't) as good as people have expected. At times, they show flashes of brilliance on the offensive side of the football, while at others, they just look confused. The Minnesota game is an excellent example. The first drive of the game, they marched right down the field, making it look easy. Then it was like they hit a wall and started playing like they couldn't move the ball against a pop-warner team. This week brings the Atlanta Falcons to town, fresh off a drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals. People are going to look at that 41-7 final and think the Falcons are for real, but I'll reserve judgment for now. I'm thinking that 34 point win is more a reflection on how bad the Cards are this season. So, as far as this game goes, I think the Falcons will play the Saints tough on the road, but in the end, the Saints' 10th ranked defense will slow the Falcons' offense down just enough to preserve a win for the good guys. Covering the spread is another story.
PICK- Saints to win AND Falcons to cover
Game #7-
49ers @ (-2.5) Chiefs
Someone break up the Chiefs!! If you told me after only winning 4 games last year that the Chiefs would start off the season 2-0, I might have have slapped your cheek and informed you that your knowledge of football was less than impressive. I think the fact that Kansas City and Tampa Bay are both undefeated is the biggest story of this young season so far. I think the players out in K.C. are starting to buy into what head coach Todd Haley is selling and if there was ever a season where they could sneak around and win the AFC West, it's 2010. Eventually, I think San Diego will right the ship and win the division, but when it's all said and done, the Chiefs will have more wins (by 5 or 6) than most people predicted. On the other hand, San Francisco is a team a lot of "experts" (me included) predicted to win 10 or more games and win the NFC West. Unfortunately for them (and for the experts who picked them), they've started off 0-2, going 1-1 against the spread. After watching Pete Carroll and his Seattle Trojans stomp a mudhole in the 49ers' ass in week 1, I thought I could be dead wrong about the niners. But, I liked the way they responded last week against the world champs, taking them to the final buzzer. So, I think the 49ers build off what they did against the Saints and hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season. The Chiefs will play them close, though and should cover.
PICK- 49ers to win AND Chiefs to cover
Game #8-
(-11) Detroit @ Minnesota
Who else thinks Brett Favre should have stayed in the backyard, playing two-hand touch with all his Wrangler wearing buddies? If you ask me, this season had disaster written on it from the moment his three teammates had to fly to Mississippi and drag him to Minnesota. You can tell by Favre's body language that he doesn't want to be there and his 4 picks, 1 touchdown and 56.1 passer rating do nothing to tell me otherwise. For the first time in his life, Brett Favre looks old and that doesn't bode well for a Vikings team that needs him to be the Brett Favre of 2009. On the other side of the coin, Detroit is 0-2 as well, but they're one craptastic call away from being 1-1. They seem to be much improved this season and so far, I'm liking what I'm seeing out of Jahvid Best, who incidentally, was my sleeper pick for offensive rookie of the year. After the monster game he put up last week against Philly, I'm not sure I can call him a sleeper any more. So, as far as the game goes, I can't see Minnesota, one of the sexy Super Bowl picks, going 0-3. Being in Minneapolis, the Vikings should win this one, but I look for Detroit to play them close to the vest and get the cover.
PICK- Vikings to win AND Lions to cover
Game #9-
(-3) Dallas @ Houston
I have to say, nothing puts a smile on my face like watching the Cowboys lose. Being a Saints fan, I'm expected to dislike teams like Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina, but if I'm being honest, I would say there isn't a team in the league that I despise more than the Dallas Cowboys. It was the equivalent to a football orgasm watching them make the playoffs every year, only to lose. I don't think I'll ever get tired of watching the video of Tony Romo sitting on the turf, hanging his head in shame after he muffed the hold on that kick against the Seahawks. Ahh, the memories, but enough about the past, let's talk about the 0-2, 2010 Dallas Cowboys. I shouldn't take as much pleasure in their losses, considering I've picked them to win two weeks in a row, but damn, this feels good. Especially considering most of the so-called "experts" (You won't find me in this list) picked the Cowboys to be the fist team in the history of the league to host a Super Bowl. If they still consider that a realistic goal (which I don't), they need to get a whole lot better real quick. On the flip-side, the 2-0 Houston Texans are a team from Texas that's actually good. Going into the season, I was expecting big things from this team and so far they haven't disappointed. Having said that, I fully expect them to get waxed by Dallas this week. I've seen this scenario play out time and time again. One team whips the others' ass in the preseason. The regular season starts and one team struggles while the other team succeeds. They eventually play again down the road and what happens? The team living on skid row wins every time! I would be very surprised if Dallas didn't win this game by 10+.
PICK- Dallas to win AND to cover
Game #10-
Redskins @ (-3.5) Rams
I just can't get excited about this game. The Skins added Donovan McNabb in the offseason, which even in his ripe old age, is a major upgrade over Jason Campbell (How's he working out in Oakland? Somewhere between Todd Marinovich and JaMarcus Russell.), but it just didn't do much for me. I also know the Skins beat Dallas (0-2...I love bringing that up) and played Houston to overtime, but I'm just not sold on them yet. As long as Mike Shannahan focuses more on football and less on idiotic conditioning tests for fat defensive linemen, I think he'll eventually be able to turn the Redskins into a decent team. It just won't be this season. Lucky for them, they've got Sam Bradford and the hapless Rams this week. The Rams played tough against Oakland and Arizona, but you have to consider they were playing Oakland and Arizona. I've seen a high school team or two that could play those teams tough. Despite the fact that I'm still unsold on the Skins, I don't think they should have any trouble with the St. Louis Bradfords.
PICK- Redskins to win AND to cover
Game #11-
Eagles @ (-3.5) Jaguars
So, Michael Vick is the Eagles' starting quarterback for the second straight week and according to Andy Reid, for the rest of the season. I was never really a Vick fan, so for me, this move doesn't do a lot to give me confidence about the Philadelphia Eagles. He's got a career QB rating of 76.8 and a completion percentage of 54.0%. That's not very good. I understand why the Eagles decided to go with Vick. Supposedly, their offensive line is garbage and unlike Kevin Kolb, Vick is more mobile. If the Eagles still consider Kolb to be the future, I'm sure they didn't want him taking snaps behind a line that was going to get him killed when they had options. So, we'll see? Now that Vick doesn't have to worry about the day-to-day operations of Bad Newz Kennels, maybe his completion percentage will improve? As far as this week's game, they're playing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are one crappy season away from playing football in LA. The Jags have always seemed to me to be one of those teams that if they just disappeared, nobody would notice. They have no identity and nothing about that team stands out. Even their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew is nondescript. Bottom line, I like the Eagles in this game. They haven't had much trouble putting points on the board and I don't see that changing against the Jags and their 29th ranked defense. Unless MJD goes apeshit, look for Philly to win this one comfortably.
PICK- Eagles to win AND to cover
Game #12-
Colts @ (-5.5) Broncos
Another season and another tragedy for the Denver Broncos. On Monday, Broncos receiver Kenny McKinley was found dead in his home, the result of an apparent suicide. This is the third Bronco death since 2007, which tells me, if I were an NFL free agent, I'd be looking for some place OTHER than Denver to play football! All joking aside, a team tragedy is never a good thing when it comes to winning football games, especially when you're going into a week where you're facing a guy like Peyton Manning. I didn't expect much from Denver in the first place, but when you're going into a game without your best defensive player (Elvis Dumerville), facing a team like the Colts that can score in a hurry, if you're head and heart aren't 100% in it, even the best team could get rolled in the blink of an eye. Which is exactly what I expect to happen to Denver this weekend. I see Manning and the Colts scoring early and often, cruising to an easy victory.
PICK- Colts to win AND to cover
Game #13-
Chargers @ (-5.5) Seahawks
This past off-season, San Diego lost the face of their franchise (LaDanian Tomlinson), one of their biggest offensive threats (Vincent Jackson to a hold-out and suspension) and the protector of their quarterback (Left Tackle Marcus McNeill to a hold-out). All that said, I still penciled them in for an AFC West championship. And then the Chiefs beat them in week 1. And LT's replacement, rookie Ryan Matthews developed a severe case of fumbleitis. So where does that leave the Chargers? If you ask me, looking at the competition, I'd still say they're poised to win the AFC West. Sure, the Chiefs look improved, but there's no way I'm picking a team that won 4 games last year to win a division. The Chargers still have Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates, so barring injury, they should be fine over the long haul. On the other hand, the Seahawks came out guns blazing in week 1, laying a whipping on the 49ers. I didn't see that one coming and for about 6 days, I thought I might have the wrong impression of the hawks. And then they went to Denver and got peeled 31-14. I don't see the Seahawks doing anything this year because I don't think Pete Carroll's "rah-rah" college atmosphere is going to work with professional athletes making millions of dollars. That being said, I look for the Chargers to win this game by 10+ points.
PICK- Chargers to win AND to cover
Game #14-
(-4.5) Raiders @ Cardinals
This has to be the worst game of the week. The Raiders are coming off a HUGE win against the Rams (Sarcasm?). The Cards, on the other hand are coming off a good old fashioned 41-7 turkey stomping at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. There isn't anything I like about either one of these teams. Sure, Darren McFadden has run well, but he's injury prone and the bulk of his rushing numbers (145 yds) came against the Rams. You could also make a case for Larry Fitzgerald, but his stock dropped when Kurt Warner decided to dance with the stars. I don't care who you are, when Derek Anderson is throwing you the football, your stock is going to drop. Anyway, I'm going out on a limb with this one and picking the Raiders. The Cards showed last week that you can run on them (221 to the Falcons), so I'm thinking McFadden has a good shot to get a lot of yards this week. We'll see...
PICK- Raiders to win AND to cover
Game #15-
(-2) Jets @ Dolphins
I'm surprised the Jets are the underdogs in this game. Sure, Miami is 2-0, beating the likes of Buffalo and Minnesota, but going into the season, the Jets were picked to win the AFC East and make the Super Bowl. Plus, they're coming off a big win against the Patriots, which is significantly more impressive to me than a win over the Vikings. I'm not sold on Mark Sanchez yet, but last week he was efficient (21-30) and effective (220 yds, 3 tds). I know Darrelle Revis is out this week, but that defense didn't look too bad without him in the preseason and Brandon Marshall hasn't exactly set the world on fire down in South Beach. I look for Chad Henne and the fins to lose their first game this week in a close, defensive struggle.
PICK- Jets to win AND to cover
Game #16-
Packers @ (-3) Bears
Hear me when I say this, the Chicago Bears are a fraud! They beat the Lions on a terrible, last second call and they beat a Dallas team that right now probably couldn't beat the St. Louis Rams. I think Jay Cutler is a bum and always have. I picked Green Bay to win the NFC North and I think they will head into the windy city and beat the Bears to death. I look for Aaron Rogers to have another monster game while Charles Woodson and the defense shuts down Cutler, Forte and the Bears. Reality will slap the Bears on the cheek this week and put them back on the track of finishing third in the North.
PICK- Packers to win AND to cover
So, there's my take on week #3. The reason picking NFL games is so challenging is because every week teams that should win always lose and teams that should lose always win, so we'll see how I do. My four team parlay for the week looks like this:
Steelers (+3) over Buccaneers
Colts (+5.5) over Broncos
Jets (-2) over Dolphins
Bengals (+3) over Panthers
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